According to a note from the National Institute of Statistics (Insee), inflation should decline and purchasing power should recover at the end of the year, as the Social Conference opens on Monday, bringing together trade union and employer organizations. The subject of remuneration must in particular be discussed.
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While inflation and purchasing power are on the agenda of the social conference on low wages, the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) wants to be reassuring about the evolution of the situation. by the end of 2023 in its latest economic report published on Thursday October 12. Concerning Inflation first. Despite the uncertainties surrounding the evolution of oil prices, the National Institute of Statistics expects a slowdown in the rise in prices. Inflation would be at 4.4% in December year-on-year, compared to around 5% today and the impact will be concrete on purchasing power.
When the accounts are done in December, despite the difficult start to the year, our purchasing power should have increased, over the whole year, by 1.2%, significantly more than the 0.5%. expected at the beginning of the summer by INSEE.“LThe rise in wages is joining the rise in prices”, explains Julien Pouget, head of the economic department at INSEE. That is to say that, over the entire second half of the year, the average salary per worker would increase faster than inflation.
>> “Our salaries no longer have any meaning today”: in certain sectors, minimums below the minimum wage weigh down purchasing power
Sharing value
Salaries benefit in particular from the payment of the value sharing bonus, the famous “Macron bonus”. Over the whole of 2023, the increase in this average salary per capita would be 5%, the equivalent of inflation today.
Salaries that increase are normally additional purchases. As for consumption, household spending, which represents more than half of GDP (our national wealth), would be affected positively in the fourth quarter.
A very uncertain context
International uncertainties and household attitudes towards crises: Are we going to consume or rather save as a precaution? International uncertainties and the attitude of households towards crises remain difficult to anticipate. How to find accommodation at a time of the real estate crisis felt by both households and students? One certainty: the positive outlook from INSEE will not prevent the social partners from putting all the useful questions on the table during the social conference that the Prime Minister, Élisabeth Borne, is launching on Monday October 16 at the Economic, Social and Environmental Council.