Last year, Russia supplied 40% of European gas. That was before the invasion of Ukraine, the economic sanctions and the diplomatic showdown that plunged Europe into apothecary calculations. How then to get rid of this energy which supplies the Kremlin with foreign currency and poisons Ukraine? While waiting to find the answer, the EU is feverishly scrutinizing the volumes that pass through the gas pipelines from the East every day.
And it is now Nord Stream’s turn to raise concerns. The reason, however, is quite innocuous: these two pipes, directly connected to Germany, were shut down for ten days for annual maintenance. It must be said that in recent weeks, Moscow had already reduced gas deliveries via this pipeline by 60%, citing a technical problem requiring the sending of turbines to Canada for repairs.
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The consequences, moreover, were immediate on supplies from the Austrian OMV (70% drop in volumes at the Baumgarten terminal), the Italian Eni (in English), Germany and France. In this context, the French Minister for the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, has even called for “quickly get into battle order”, in order to deal with the possibility of a prolonged outage.
In order to measure the issues related to these imports of Russian gas, franceinfo looked at the main gas pipelines linking Russia to the EU (Nord Stream, Yamal, Ukrainian network and TurkStream), which makes it possible to visualize the drop in deliveries.
A few entry stations in Europe have been selected, in order to observe the evolution of the volumes distributed since the beginning of the year. The data (expressed in kWh/day) show contrasting situations, from outright shutdowns to maintaining supplies.
Nord Stream concentrates concerns, because 60% of European imports of Russian gas transit there. But in April and May, Russia had already terminated contracts with Bulgarian, Danish, Bulgarian, Greek, Dutch and Polish companies. As a result, Gazprom’s exports to Europe peaked at 4.7 billion cubic meters in June, according to calculations by Thierry Bros, a researcher at Sciences Po and a consultant specializing in the energy sector.
This level could decrease further in July, to 4 billion cubic meters. A historically low level, which places Europe in the face of a risk of widespread breakdown.
Here is an overview of the main gas pipelines bringing Russian energy to Europe:
North Stream. There is debate about Moscow’s intentions. Admittedly, the ten-day break (from July 11 to 21) is scheduled each year for technical maintenance. But the decision to reduce flows by around 60% is on the other hand “Politics”explains to franceinfo the analyst Ben McWilliams, of the think tank Bruegel, because “Russia has chosen not to redirect gas flows via Ukraine to compensate for the drop in volumes”, due to the sending of turbines to Canada for maintenance. Many experts insist on the technical nature of these operations, without specifying whether a transfer of volumes to other gas pipelines could be envisaged.
TurkStream. This pipeline is operating as usual. The decrease observed corresponds to the annual maintenance operation (from 21 to 26 June) and the flows started to rise again after the end of the work. It is possible, even probable, that the Nord Stream will reproduce this pattern after the ten days of the cut.
Ukrainian network. The war disrupts deliveries via Ukrainian territory. “Flows have been weak since the beginning of the year, and almost always below historical minimum values”, comments Ben McWilliams. And war sometimes has very concrete consequences. Thus, Ukraine refuses the flows in the station of Soudzha, because it is from now on impossible for him to control the station of compression of gas of Novopskov, in the area of Luhansk passed under Russian control. kyiv has offered to entertain the relevant streams on the Sokhranovka station, but Gazprom refuses this alternative.
Yamal (via Belarus). Yamal’s case is clear cut. Russia simply turned off the tap after its decision to no longer deliver gas to Poland. As a result, flows have been at a standstill since May, forcing Germany to supply its neighbor from its own stations.
The rebound observed at the start of the war is easily explained. Feeling the tide turn, European states urgently sought to anticipate the future energy crisis, in order to secure their backs. The airlines then issued “nominations”, that is to say daily import requests. “There is flexibility in the contracts allowing companies to do this”, explains Ben McWilliams. The trend today is different: since the end of April, the company Gazprom has taken the decision to cut or reduce deliveries, in particular to companies refusing to honor their contracts in roubles.
The European Union is now trying to increase its imports from Norway and Algeria. Imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are also increasing, but they are hampered by the limited number of terminals capable of receiving them. “The replacement of Russian gas by LNG has largely reached its limit”underlines Bruegel (in English). To compensate for a complete stoppage of Russian imports via pipelines, EU demand would therefore have to be reduced by around 15% compared to the average demand for 2019-2021.
“Stopping all gas flows is like using the atomic weapon of energy: you can only do it once”however, believes Thierry Bros, who does not believe in the scenario of a massive stoppage of flows. “It is more interesting for the Kremlin to keep this weapon for the next few months”depending on the balance of power.
In the meantime, these supply difficulties are penalizing the efforts of European countries to build up their gas stocks before the next winter. Under these conditions, it will be difficult to achieve the target of 80% occupancy by November 1, set for Member States by recent European rules. (in English). “Last February, I calculated that it would take about 4 billion cubic meters a month for Russia to keep Europe afloat while preventing it from stockpiling”explains Thierry Bros. “We are now at 3.8 billion.”