India | A clock keeps count of the most populous country in the world

(Bombay) India’s population clock, made up of 10 numbered white boxes on a large green metal board, attracts curious passers-by to watch as it records the history of the world’s most populous nation.

Installed on the facade of the International Institute of Population Sciences (IIPS) in Bombay, the clock, which looks like a sports scoreboard, is manually updated every day according to forecast estimates.

It was erected in 1982, when India had just over 684 million people, according to the 1981 government census.

This figure more than doubled over the following decades.

India has seen rapid population growth and overtaken China as the top country by population, with more than 1.42 billion people, according to a United Nations projection from April.

“An additional slot had already been fitted into the clock, anticipating that we were going to exceed one billion,” says Professor Chander Shekhar of IIPS.

Overcrowding has long been a concern, prompting the government to establish a national family planning program as early as 1952.

But it was the controversial forced sterilization measures taken in the 1970s that sparked public debate and prompted the institute to create the clock, Shekhar said.

Every day, security officials change the numbers based on forecasts of the natural growth rate — the difference between births and deaths per 1,000 people per year — drawn from government and United Nations estimates.

“We welcome the update of the table, because passers-by can also see the increase in the population,” said Salunkhe V. V., 56, who oversees security.

India’s population is growing by just under 41,000 people a day — or one every two seconds — or about 15 million a year, according to current projections.

Advantage or disadvantage?

India’s fertility rate is currently two births per woman, just below replacement level of 2.1, and down from government estimates of 4.8 in 1981.

But there are significant regional differences, with poorer states such as Uttar Pradesh (north) and Bihar (northeast) — with a combined population of over 325 million — showing the highest rates. , according to a 2019 national study.

On the other hand, the two richest states, Maharashtra (center) and Tamil Nadu (South), have fertility rates of 1.56 and 1.54 respectively, well below the average, indicates the same survey.

Family planning was largely left to women, with less than one in ten men using condoms, while female sterilization reached nearly 38%, the government’s 2019-2021 National Family Health Survey notes.

Now 49, Shekhar was drawn to the study of population from an early age, fascinated and “troubled” by the presence of large crowds wherever he went.

“I used to hate those numbers,” says the fertility and social demography expert.

“But after I got my master’s in statistics, I thought, ‘Let’s try to figure it out, is this a problem? Where can we really solve it? ””.

Mr. Shekhar believes that high numbers should not constitute a ticking time bomb if the authorities are focused on improving the quality of life.

Education and health outcomes, such as lower infant and maternal mortality rates, have improved since 1982, and India’s economy has grown to become the world’s fifth-largest.

But in many cities, residents struggle to secure resources while facing water shortages and air and water pollution.

The unemployment rate for young people aged 15 to 24 was 23.2% in 2022, according to the World Bank.

Data from the Indian Economic Monitoring Center meanwhile showed an overall unemployment rate of 7.7% in May.

According to Mr. Shekhar, one of the main concerns is that “India will get old before it gets rich”.

“For this not to happen, people must be qualified and there must be employment opportunities for a young and large population,” he advocates.