Egypt is preparing for an unsurprising presidential election which should see outgoing President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi win a third term, despite growing social discontent against the backdrop of a serious economic crisis.
From Sunday to Tuesday, Egyptians over the age of 18 will have to choose between four candidates: former Marshal Sissi in power since he overthrew the Islamist Mohamed Morsi in 2013, and three other candidates generally little known to the great audience.
In the most populous country in the Arab world, with nearly 106 million inhabitants, the system promises to be pharaonic: some 9,400 polling stations, 15,000 justice employees mobilized and a voting period spread over three days.
The results will be announced on December 18, unless a second round is necessary. This scenario nevertheless seems unlikely in light of the 2014 and 2018 elections in which Mr. Sissi won 96% of the vote.
For this new election, some observers believed for a time in a tougher competition. But the two opposition figures who intended to change the situation, without any real hope of winning, but to provide a dissenting voice at least for the duration of the campaign, are in prison or awaiting trial.
Beyond the question of human rights — Egypt is 135e out of 140 countries in the World Justice Project’s rule of law rankings, the number one priority for Egyptians is the economic situation.
Inflation is running at 40%, the 50% devaluation has caused prices to soar and the private sector continues to contract. Public subsidies are disappearing one after the other under pressure from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
“Release of prisoners of conscience”
The same IMF is still waiting to be able to carry out its quarterly assessments after a new loan to Egypt, the second country in the world most exposed to the risk of default, according to Bloomberg.
Aware of the economic expectations of voters, candidate Hazem Omar assured that his “first decision” if elected would be “control of inflation by removing VAT (value added tax) on basic foodstuffs”.
He was speaking during the only televised debate between candidates, to which Mr. Sissi sent a member of his campaign to represent him.
Another candidate, Farid Zahran, at the head of a small left-wing party, promised “the release of all prisoners of conscience”, estimated at thousands since Mr. Sissi came to power, and the “removal of repressive laws”.
For the Arab Reform Initiative, “Mr. Sissi’s guaranteed victory has nothing to do with his popularity or his economic performance.”
The outgoing president “will win because he controls state institutions and the much-feared security apparatus, in addition to having eliminated any serious competitor,” deciphers the Paris-based think tank.
Ezzat Ibrahim, a member of the Human Rights Council – an independent body whose members are appointed by Parliament – denies that the die has been cast in advance.
Portraits of Sissi omnipresent
“To assert that the elections are won in advance is to want to prevent Egyptians from exercising their rights and to promote a bad image of the state,” he told AFP.
In the streets, however, posters and banners proclaiming the support of parties, neighborhood committees or local figures for the outgoing president are everywhere. Campaign posters for other candidates are very rare.
Beyond internal challenges, the Arab Reform Initiative highlights the impact of the war between Palestinian Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip, neighboring Egyptian Sinai.
This conflict, he asserts, “threatens the already faltering Egyptian economy with a new blow while reviving protest in the streets”.
On October 20, hundreds of Egyptians rerouted a procession of solidarity with the Gazans towards the emblematic Tahrir Square – where in 2011, demonstrations led to the fall of the then president, Hosni Mubarak – before quickly being scattered.
Since then, no more pro-Palestinian parades have been authorized in the country where demonstrating is illegal.
For the Arab Reform Initiative, “Mr. Sissi probably hopes that the war in Gaza will bring him a lever of pressure on the Gulf and the West”, because he is an essential interlocutor in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while seeking support “international donors to alleviate the economic crisis”.