In recent months, cereal prices have already been very high due to bad harvests, but there, the war in Ukraine is causing prices to soar like never before: on Monday, March 7, a tonne of wheat exceeded 450 euros on the European market. Euronext at 450 euros. Last year it was twice as expensive. Russia and Ukraine alone account for 30% of world wheat exports. The two countries were to put 15 million tonnes on the market by this summer. We will therefore have to do without.
In France, there is no shortage of worries: we are a producing and exporting country. On the other hand, this situation is a real tragedy for the countries very dependent on Russian and Ukrainian wheat such as Egypt, Lebanon, Algeria, Morocco or Tunisia, which relied on these productions to feed their populations. Other exporting countries cannot compensate.
And in this context, those who have wheat are tempted to keep their harvest for themselves: for example, Hungary and Bulgaria have also taken measures to limit exports. China, the world’s largest wheat producer, is expecting one of the worst harvests in its history due to bad weather. So not only will it not sell part of its production but will even import.
Which complicates the equation a little more for the countries of the Maghreb and Africa: not only will there be a shortage of wheat on the world markets and when there is some, it will be sold at such a high level that they won’t be able to afford it. In addition, in three weeks, it is Ramadan, so there will be a large consumption of durum wheat for semolina and soft wheat for bread. These countries will draw on their stocks… Hence the risk of tensions, warn the experts. Tensions that will not take place immediately, but this summer or in the fall.
We have already seen revolts, in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008-2010, in the Maghreb. The price of bread had risen so much that it fueled the riots and participated in the Arab springs and the fall of certain regimes. Last year, even before the war in Ukraine, there had already been tensions in the supply of wheat, and Algeria, for example, had to ration its distribution. And, if people are starving, we must also expect significant migration to Europe in particular.