In a Thailand experienced in coups, the massive rejection of the military in power which was expressed at the polls on Sunday reflects the great frustration of the population and its aspiration for change after decades of immobility, say analysts interviewed by the AFP.
Coming to power in 2014 in a military coup, the outgoing Prime Minister, Prayut Chan-O-Cha, suffered a severe defeat in the legislative elections which propelled the two pro-democracy opposition parties to the lead, Move Forward Party (MFP) and Pheu Thai, who say they are ready to form a coalition.
Weakened by the stagnation of a once buoyant economy, rising inequality and assaults on freedoms, the junta-backed United Thai Nation party garnered just 4.7 million votes on Sunday, down from its predecessor 8.4 in 2019.
Voters “are fed up with generals” and a government “more attentive to the interests of the families of the oligarchies than to the will of the people”, estimates Napon Jatusripitak, professor of political science at the Singaporean institute ISEAS-Yusof Ishak.
The surprise victory of the MFP, which came out on top with 14.1 million votes, was partly based on the anger of Thai youth who spoke out on the streets of Bangkok in 2020 and were suppressed with tear gas and rubber bullets.
This mobilization, which had shaken the Thai political class, demanded the end of a system dominated by an elite from the monarchy, the army or business circles.
The young leader of the MFP, Pita Limjaroenrat, did not hesitate to call for a “demilitarization” in Thailand, an iconoclastic position in a kingdom structured around the army, the monarchy and religion.
The party promises today to replace conscription, introduced more than a hundred years ago and compulsory for all men over 20, with voluntary military service.
“We want to remove the army from Thai politics,” Pita Limjaroenrat told AFP in April.
The task promises to be difficult: the army has a long history of political interventions in modern Thailand, with a dozen coups d’etat fomented since the end of the absolute monarchy in 1932.
The military also remains closely associated with the very fabric of power in the country, notes Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee, of Thailand’s Chulalongkorn University, stressing that many of the current senior administration officials were appointed under the junta’s mandate. military between 2014 and 2019.
“They tried to install themselves in the Constitution, to institutionalize themselves, to conceal the nature of their power”, assures the expert.
“Gap” within the army
The attacks by the MFP against the army, however, revealed the existence of internal divisions between soldiers, depending on their rank.
“There is a big gap in the military between the rank and file soldier and officers and Move Forward has exposed and exploited it effectively,” says political analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak.
In Bangkok, a district close to Parliament and reputed to be very close to the army thus created a surprise by voting mainly for the MFP. “It’s a sign of the times,” says the expert.
Carried by the wave of orange – the color associated with it – the MFP even managed to outrun the Pheu Thai party of billionaire and former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who nevertheless dominated political life for more than 20 years.
According to analysts, this party has paid for its ambiguity by remaining very equivocal on the possibility of forming a coalition with the party supported by the junta.
“Voters can distinguish between a party that plays political games, like Pheu Thai, and a party that intends to change the way things are done in Thailand,” analyzes Napon Jatusripitak.