Emmanuel Macron is visiting Sweden on Tuesday January 30, while in recent weeks, Swedish political and military leaders have alerted the population to the threats of a potential war.
It all started from a ski resort, in Sälen, where a three-day national conference on Defense takes place every year in January. The Prime Minister, Ulf Kristersson, the king, numerous political leaders, high-ranking members of the army… All the Swedish elite were present, as was the press obviously.
It is in this context that a series of declarations, which may have seemed alarmist, were made. That of Carl-Oskar Bohlin, the Minister of Civil Defense, is the one that has been relayed the most on social networks : “For a nation that has known peace as a pleasant companion for nearly 210 years, the idea that it is an unwavering constant of life is convenient. But relying on that conclusion has become more dangerous than it has been in a very long time.”
“Many have said it before me, but allow me to do it with the force of office, in a less veiled manner and with unvarnished clarity : there could be a war in Sweden. Who will you be if war breaks out? ?”
Carl-Oskar Bohlin, Swedish Minister of Civil Defenseat the Annual Conference in Sälen
The minister addresses the Swedes directly, the tone is serious. Then, a few days later, it was the army commander who relaunched the subject on television by inviting his fellow citizens to prepare mentally and concretely for the possibility of war.
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A bout of general stress
At the time, the Swedes’ reaction was knee-jerk, a general bout of stress. They massively consulted the Civil Defense website on which you can find not only the map with the anti-atomic shelters closest to your home, but also this famous brochure which lists everything you need to have at home. in the event of a crisis.
Food for a week, a jerrycan of water, a stock of medicines, a gas stove, candles, a portable battery-powered radio, cash, or even trash bags to do your business in. A survival kit in the event of a power, water, internet or store supply outage.
But from there to projecting ourselves into the worst. The Swedes still seem quite carefree. Lalle Gustafsson, 42, was born after the Cold War, he is the father of two children, and even he, who did his military service 20 years ago, is clearly not ready : “Of course it’s a worrying message, it’s not a joke, I know it’s serious. But as a Swede, the war is very far away, so it’s really scary. I went see the websites where you can buy survival boxes, different crisis kits, but I haven’t ordered anything.”
“I don’t want to be ‘ready’, it’s a mix of laziness and denial. So maybe I’ll make an escape plan instead.”
Lalle Gustafssonat franceinfo
Is the method really effective? ? Doesn’t it just instill a feeling of fear ? For some, it is a way of distracting people from the economic crisis that is hitting households at the moment. Others noted that there were already staff shortages in hospitals and that trains almost never arrived on time. So what will it be like in war ?
All defense specialists agree that a good cold shower has the merit of putting ideas back in place. Niklas Granholm is the deputy director of the Defense Research Agency, the institution that guides public policy : “With everything that has happened over the last 10-15 years, you have to wonder if people are living under a stone. It’s very surprising.”
“All the signals, all the analyzes we do, clearly point to a much more difficult security situation.”
Niklas Granholm, Deputy Director of the Defense Research Agencyat franceinfo
“You have to say things as they are, be honest about the situation, it’s the best attitude to to haveadds Niklas Granholm. It would be worse to stay silent or try to pretend that everything is fine, that the public has nothing to worry about, because that’s clearly not the case, really not…”
Fear of being attacked by Russia
The threat is neither imminent nor direct, except that Sweden already suspects Russia of being behind recent cyberattacks and information warfare operations. But in the medium or long term, the country is now projecting itself into scenarios which, for one reason or another, could draw it into an armed conflict. “From a military point of view, explains Niklas Granholm, the Nordic and Baltic regions form a single strategic area.”
“Today, missile systems, air capabilities have much longer range and greater precision than at the time of World War II, when Sweden could afford to remain neutral.”
Niklas Granholm, Deputy Director of the Defense Research Agencyat franceinfo
“If a conflict arises – I say it in the conditional – in the Baltic countries or in Finland, Sweden would become a kind of rear zone through which many resources pass which must be moved from west to east. So Sweden would be part of an open conflict if something happened in the region.”
This is why Sweden is investing massively in its army, reestablishing partial military service, spending lavishly – or almost – in its arms industry. But to resist, the whole of society must also be resilient. In the long term, it is the so-called strategy of total defense which is reactivated today in Sweden : this interweaving of the military and the civilian, and it is in peacetime that it must be prepared.