It is a vote whose outcome, uncertain, could radically transform its democratic future. On the eve of Sunday’s legislative elections, Poland, polarized as ever, is holding its breath. The national-conservative Law and Justice party (PiS), in power since 2015, hopes to win a third mandate in a row. If necessary, Jarosław Kaczyński’s party would continue headlong in the “conservative revolution” that it is trying to put in place, tinged with anti-democratic excesses.
This political project has already led to a profound transformation of the country. Abortion has since been virtually banned, constitutional violations have multiplied and public broadcasting, controlled through purges, now serves as a relay for PiS propaganda. The independence of the judiciary, for its part, has been reduced dramatically: the Constitutional Tribunal or the National Judicial Council, responsible for appointing judges, have been subservient to it. A politicization that spares neither the uniformed services nor the central bank, while public spending has reached a record level of opacity.
Poland happily joined the European Union (EU) twenty years ago, but Warsaw maintains relations with it that have become execrable due to a trampled rule of law. After eight years of national populism, it is a society split in two which is preparing to converge towards the polls: two Polands, two models of society which look at each other like earthenware dogs. One is liberal, Europhile, especially urban. The second ultraconservative, nationalist, rather rural, that of PiS.
The electoral campaign which ended was like the public debate: vitriol, peppered with invectives, even physical attacks against opposition candidates. The public television TVP, under the orders of PiS, sometimes raised the migratory scarecrow, a real electoral fuel, sometimes portrayed Donald Tusk, the main opposition figure, as a national enemy.
If, on a national scale, the PiS remains at the top of voting intentions, hovering around 34%, its majority is far from assured. The staggering score of 43% obtained in 2019, during the last election, seems unattainable. And the democratic opposition, led by the liberal-centrists of Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO), this time has a chance of winning. It is therefore a razor’s edge election that is looming. It is not a question of winning over new voters, but rather of mobilizing one’s own, even if it means playing one-upmanship at its peak, block against block. Jarosław Kaczyński thus believes that the election will be a “radical choice” between “security or chaos”. For defenders of the rule of law, these are the most important elections since the end of communism in 1989, in that they could cement the illiberal turn at work.
Because Jarosław Kaczyński makes no secret of it, he wants to go even further, like Viktor Orbán’s Hungary. First, by persevering in bringing judicial institutions, such as the Supreme Court, into line, or by launching a total overhaul of the structure of common law courts. He also seeks to put down the resistance of many magistrates who, since 2015, have raised their voices to protect themselves against any political influence. No fewer than “10,000 judges will be faced with a diabolical choice: they will either have to leave the profession or submit to the procedure of the National Judicial Council, which is not independent under European law,” explains Anna Wójcik , assistant professor at the Institute of Legal Sciences of the Polish Academy of Sciences. “A victory for PiS will allow it to entrench its new elites, to limit the room for maneuver of the opposition and civil society,” adds the lawyer. On the media level, the PiS also calls for the “repolonization” of the independent press, not to say bringing it into line.
A third PiS mandate would also precipitate Poland’s isolationism by further undermining its status as a key player in supporting Ukraine. The executive also made the choice to sacrifice aid to its neighbor at war on the altar of its electoral interests, at the end of September, by announcing the cessation of arms deliveries to Ukraine. A declaration which, although more symbolic than tangible, would aim to satisfy the extreme right and agricultural fringe.
On a European scale, a continuation of PiS in power could well call into question Poland’s place in the EU, weakening the basis of its common values. Eurosceptic rhetoric, which reaches rarely seen levels, will continue unabated by “accusing EU policies on immigration, human rights and ecology of being attacks on the sovereignty of Poland,” predicts Anna Wójcik, who emphasizes “that a large majority of Poles support the EU, not only for economic reasons, but also as a bulwark of democracy.”
“Polexit”, a fantasy? The PiS doesn’t say a word about it. But for Andrzej Stankiewicz, journalist for the independent media Onet, the country’s exit from the European project could occur, sooner or later, in the event of a renewal of the majority in power. “Kaczyński sees the EU as a leftist or German idea. He waited 20 years before banning the right to abortion, he is also waiting for his moment for the EU, little by little instilling an anti-European atmosphere, to prepare society,” believes this fine connoisseur of Polish politics since 1987, who met the leader of PiS on numerous occasions.
The Polish paradox is all the more obvious since it was this Central European country, a former member of the Eastern Bloc, which precipitated the fall of the Iron Curtain more than 30 years ago. On Sunday, half of the population could fear reconnecting with their authoritarian demons.