Pakistan Muslim League leader Shehbaz Sharif is set to become the country’s new strongman on Monday after the fall of Prime Minister Imran Khan, but he will face the same problems that cost his predecessor his seat .
After weeks of crisis, the National Assembly of Pakistan dismissed on the night of Saturday to Sunday Imran Khan, the first head of government in the history of the country to be overthrown by a vote of no confidence.
The departure of Mr. Khan paves the way for the formation of an unlikely parliamentary alliance which should, as of Monday, appoint Shehbaz Sharif, the leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), at the head of the country of 220 million of inhabitants with nuclear weapons.
Mr. Sharif’s first task will be to form a coalition government with the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP, left) and the small conservative Jamiatul Ulema-e-Islam-F (JUI-F).
The PPP and the PML-N are the two dynastic parties which have dominated national political life for decades, and which are more accustomed to clashing than agreeing.
Their alliance of convenience, forged to oust Imran Khan from power, is unlikely to survive the approach of the next elections, scheduled for October 2023 at the latest.
Shehbaz Sharif, 70, is the younger brother of Nawaz Sharif, who was three times prime minister. He has long led the province of Punjab, the most populous in the country.
The PPP is led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, son of former President Asif Ali Zardari and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto who was assassinated in 2007.
no revenge
“We will apply a balm to the wounds of this nation”, affirmed Mr. Sharif at the end of the interminable parliamentary battle which culminated in the fall of Mr. Khan on Sunday at dawn.
He promised not to take revenge against the camp of his predecessor, contrary to a well-established practice in Pakistan.
Imran Khan, a former cricket star who had been in power since 2018, called on his supporters to take to the streets on Sunday after theiftar, the evening meal breaking the Ramadan fast.
The man claims to be the victim of a “regime change” orchestrated according to him by the United States because of his criticism of American policy in Muslim countries, particularly in Iraq and Afghanistan.
He tried everything to stay in power, before the National Assembly voted censure by 174 votes out of 342, and certainly did not say his last word.
“Khan’s political career won’t end there, his base of support is intact,” predicted political analyst Zahid Hussain.
“His assertions in recent months that he was the victim of a foreign conspiracy gave him some support,” playing on anti-American sentiment among voters, he added.
“From what he says, he seems to want to create problems for the government and pursue a kind of policy of rebellion […] rather than working for the good of the country and society,” said Talat Masood, a former general turned political scientist.
A heavy task awaits the next prime minister, who will have to face the same challenges that led to the downfall of Mr. Khan.
Starting with a sluggish economy – galloping inflation, low rupee and crushing debt – and the multiplication of attacks carried out by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Pakistani Taliban.
The army, key to political power in this country which has spent more than three decades under military rule, and which was accused of supporting Mr Khan in 2018, has not publicly intervened in recent days.
Just as MPs squabbled in the hemicycle over Imran Khan’s future, the army released a video showing the launch of a Chaheen-III ballistic missile, a few weeks after the accidental firing of an Indian missile against Pakistan.