India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, begins a month of regional elections on Thursday, February 10. This state, which has 230 million inhabitants, has been led for five years by the Hindu monk Yogi Adityanath. This ally of Prime Minister Narendra Modi ruled with an iron fist, harsh against the mafias in the region, but also against his critics and the media.
Known for his outspoken Islamophobia, Yogi Adityanath also promoted Hindu heritage and marginalized Muslims. Indeed, for five years, the hindu nationalist party BJP (“Indian People’s Party”) leads a Hindu policy in Uttar Pradesh.
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On the one hand, the authorities are launching the construction of large Hindu temples, on the other, they are repressing the Muslim minority, the latter representing 20% of the regional population. Muslims are presented as a danger to Hindus. They would kill cows, sacred in Hinduism, conspire with Pakistan or force Hindu women to convert to Islam through marriage. Messages that deeply divide society.
Uttar Pradesh is thus the laboratory of the most radical Hindu nationalism. During the campaign, Yogi Adityanath did not hesitate to compare the stakes of this election to a fight between the Hindu majority and the Muslim minority. Muslims he describes as follows: “This 20% is against us, against the building of big Hindu temples, against development and they support mafias and terrorists. That’s how this 20% is.”
Covid-19 has plunged India into one of the worst economic crises in the world. The national GDP fell by 8% in 2020. And Uttar Pradesh is particularly hard hit. It is the second poorest region in terms of per capita income: a person earns an average of 65 euros per month, the level of Senegal. However, in constant terms, this income has fallen in three years, a steeper decline than in other Indian regions.
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The most modest are therefore angry with the government.
“I earn 500 rupees a day, or 6 euros, the same as two years ago, but the prices have doubled.”
Arjun Kumar Bharti, a private bus driverat franceinfo
“When my wife gave birth, I had to go into debt to go to a private hospital, because the public one could not treat hercontinues Arjun Kumar Bharti. So the great temple of Ram, what use will it be for me? If only they had built hospitals or schools! I voted for the BJP last time. But I won’t do it again!” The BJP is therefore likely to lose many votes, but it remains the richest and best organized party in the country, and as it advances against a divided opposition, it still has a good chance of winning these elections in Uttar Pradesh. According to opinion polls, the BJP should retain a majority in the assembly of Uttar Pradesh, which has 403 members, which no party has done since 1985, and even improve its score.
The ballot consists of seven rounds. More than 22 million voters are expected to cast their ballots in the first round on Thursday for 58 state assembly seats. The counting will take place on March 10 at the end of the process.