The war is embedded in the electoral campaign in Hungary, and complicates the re-election of Viktor Orbán, prime minister since 2010. The strong man of Budapest, accused of authoritarianism, must also face an opposition more united than ever.
Under a greyish sky, a small crowd animates Petőfi Square, a stone’s throw from the pretty town hall of Kiskunfélegyháza. There are signs proclaiming “Power to the people! », brandished by young people and retirees. On this Thursday afternoon, they came to attend a political rally. It is in this small municipality located a hundred kilometers south-east of Budapest, in the agricultural heart of Hungary, that Péter Márki-Zay’s speech is expected.
At 49, this mayor of a small town in the south of the country has become, in recent months, the figurehead of the opposition in Hungary: at the end of a primary which brought together 800,000 voters, he was nominated sole candidate of a coalition of six opposition parties in the hope of ending 12 years of “illiberalism”. Here he is shaking hands with satisfied citizens, before indulging in an indictment against his main opponent: Viktor Orbán. The current Prime Minister will try to run for a fourth term in a row, on Sunday April 3, during crucial legislative elections.
Putting an end to the reign of the strong man of Budapest, who has ruled unchallenged since 2010, is the objective of Péter Márki-Zay, who multiplies public events in the four corners of the country. But “MZP”, as it is nicknamed in Hungary, recognizes it: in a Hungary where attacks on checks and balances have multiplied in recent years, the task is proving colossal for the opposition. Almost 80% of the Hungarian media landscape is in the hands of oligarchs close to the government, according to the independent media observatory Mértek. Not to mention the electoral map, redistributed since 2011 in favor of Fidesz, the national-conservative formation of Viktor Orbán.
“Rebuilding the rule of law”
In an interview given to Homework shortly after his speech in Kiskunfélegyháza, Mr. Márki-Zay deplores a “complex system built by Viktor Orbán in which it is almost impossible to lose elections”. “There is no longer any independent radio in this country of 10 million inhabitants, the equivalent of the population of Quebec”, regrets the one who lived for a time in Canada.
Displaying himself as a proud conservative, “Christian and father of seven children”, he hopes to win votes from the electorate of Viktor Orbán and, ultimately, “rebuilding the rule of law” in Hungary. But even in the event of Fidesz’s defeat, the post-Orban period is likely to be laborious: the judiciary has been cut, as have municipalities and universities, which have lost their autonomy. His priority in the event of an electoral victory? “Joining the European Public Prosecutor’s Office to be able to prosecute criminals [corrompus proches de M. Orbán] “replies Mr. Márki-Zay.
A little further on the Petőfi square, sign in hand, László Molnár hopes for a victory for the “MZP” camp; his professional future depends on it, he explains. Postman’s jacket on his back, this 30-year-old graduate in museology claims not to have found a job commensurate with his skills since he “has no contacts in politics”. In Hungary, orbanism is infused into cultural institutions. So, for want of anything better, László works at the Kiskunfélegyháza post office.
“My situation is representative of the entire Orban system, a corrupt cronyism system, he denounces. I hope that we will get rid of this regime, and that the cleaning will be done at the level of power, by replacing the people who have not been appointed on the basis of their expertise. »
In the crowd who came to listen to Péter Márki-Zay, there are also curious people, like Mihaly Kis, beret pressed on his head. “I liked what he said, but I don’t yet know who I will vote for on Sunday”, admits this 70-year-old retiree, who gave his support to Fidesz in 2018. A third of the Hungarian electorate would be indecisive like him. Suffice to say that the outcome of the ballot is most uncertain when, already, the most recent polls suggest a close face-to-face. Support for Viktor Orbán’s party hovers around 41%, barely two points higher than the opposition, according to a survey by Republikon Institute.
The Hungarian Prime Minister must also face an opposition that has chosen to drop its internal quarrels.
Atypical, the anti-Orbán coalition brings together parties ranging from the environmentalist left to the right. Jobbik, a far-right party that has policed itself and “refocused” in recent years by expelling its anti-Semitic and anti-Roma members, is also part of the lot. It is this formula of a single list of candidates – unprecedented, at the national level, in recent Hungarian history – which allowed the opposition to win the mayor of Budapest in the municipal elections of October 2019.
This strategy threatens the two-thirds majority that allowed Viktor Orban to modify the Hungarian Constitution as he pleased. “It is certainly the most difficult election that Orbán will have to face since his last defeat in 2006”, analyzes Gergely Rajnai, political scientist at Corvinus University in Budapest. “In fact, whoever wins, it will be very difficult to get re-elected next, as the medium-term economic outlook is rather bleak for the first time in 15 years. Inflation and the effects of the war could have a negative impact on the daily life of Hungarians for the next two years. Therefore, even if Orbán wins another mandate, it will be very difficult for him to anchor his party even more in power”, nuances the expert.
War, peace and stability
The war in Ukraine also complicates Viktor Orbán’s campaign. The invasion of the country by Vladimir Putin, on February 24, has highlighted the close political and economic relations that Budapest has had with the Kremlin for years.
On the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Viktor Orbán displays a convoluted position: he plays the tightrope walker by associating himself with European sanctions against Moscow, but categorically refuses to deliver arms to Ukraine or to give up Russian gas, on which the country depends at 85%. An ambiguity that Volodymyr Zelensky deplored in the middle of the European Council on Thursday March 24. “Viktor, do you know what is happening in Mariupol? asked the Ukrainian president, asking Hungary to “decide once and for all” which side it chose.
Geopolitical considerations are now at the heart of this electoral campaign turned upside down by the war in the neighboring country. Exit corruption issues or inflation, therefore.
Claiming neutrality, Viktor Orbán presents himself as the “candidate for peace” and depicts a bellicose opposition, “which is on the side of war”. Conversely, under the banner of “the West rather than the East”, the camp of Péter Márki-Zay insists on the importance of aligning itself with NATO and on a rapprochement with Brussels, in conflict for years with Budapest on issues of the rule of law.
Beyond the conflict, however, many Hungarians continue to cultivate a mistrust of an opposition long perceived as incompetent. And see the current government as a guarantee of stability, while the latter willingly takes credit for the latest economic successes. Sarolta Igloi is one of them and, on Sunday, she will not deviate from her habits by voting for Fidesz. “In 12 years, my standard of living has really increased: everyone feels it, even Orbán’s opponents. This government supports pensioners, young families, children… They have built swimming pools and gymnasiums all over the country, in addition to developing tourism”, applauds this retired English teacher, met at her home in the suburbs of Budapest. . “I changed my washing machine myself for half the price! »
She suddenly gets up and, proudly, pulls out a red-white-green Hungarian flag on which is written in marker: “Take your hands off our children”. A reference to the homophobic law adopted last June by the Hungarian Parliament, which prohibits sex education lessons addressing “sex change or homosexuality” in schools. It is that the election will also be accompanied by a referendum linked to this anti-LGBTQ + legislation, which had aroused strong criticism from the European Union. After the refugee crisis in 2015, heavily instrumentalized in the last election, the Orbán government has found its new hobby.
This report was financed thanks to the support of the Transat International Journalism Fund.The duty.