In 2023, 30,000 migrants crossed the Channel illegally

This is much less than in 2022. The figure is closely scrutinized in the United Kingdom where the government has promised to regain control of the borders.

It is the British Interior Ministry which keeps the count: 30,000 arrivals on English shores in 2023 compared to 45,000 in 2022. The drop is significant and the conservatives in power obviously take all the credit.

There are, for example, almost no Albanians left on the boats attempting the perilous journey from France to England. Their number has fallen by 90%, the result of a very dissuasive agreement with Tirana which now implies their immediate dismissal. London also regularly welcomes the agreement signed in the spring with France to strengthen coastal surveillance.

Things are not that simple

For the border staff union, this drop in arrivals is only a statistical anomaly, a sham linked not to government measures, but to bad weather conditions. Violent winds blew more than usual on the Channel, particularly this summer, and deterred departures. We would be very naive to believe that the flows will slow down, say these personnel, because we see boats that are increasingly larger and more and more solid. The opposition approves and recalls that, if we broaden the focus and look at the figures over five years, 2023 represents one of the years when arrivals were the most numerous.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will therefore have difficulty deriving political benefit from it, especially since a year ago he made this promise to stop the boats: “Stop the boats” was his slogan, his priority.

But a month ago, he had to admit that he did not have a specific deadline to give. Rishi Sunak is the fifth prime minister since the 2016 Brexit referendum which promised Britons they would regain control of their borders. Holding a hard line on immigration, he now places all his hopes in an agreement with Rwanda to send back rejected asylum seekers there. The first version of the project carried by his predecessor Boris Johnson was blocked by the Supreme Court, a new version will be proposed this month for a vote by MPs.

The subject is all the more delicate for the tenant of Downing Street as the right wing of his own party threatens to bring him down if the text is not strong enough. Rishi Sunak is playing big, the conservatives are currently well behind in the polls while immigration will be one of the major subjects of the legislative elections which are to be held this year. He is the one who must set the date. He risks pushing them away as much as possible while he keeps his promises.