An imminent work stoppage at Canada’s two largest railways could have far-reaching impacts, including on daily commutes and the transportation of grain and fuel.
If no agreement is reached, train services by Canadian National Railway Company (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) could be interrupted at 12:01 a.m. Thursday, in what has been described as an unprecedented simultaneous work stoppage by the country’s largest railways.
Here are some of the potential effects:
Public transport
Transit officials say some lines that run on CPKC tracks in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver will be suspended if dispatchers and other workers walk off the job, forcing some 32,000 riders to find alternate routes to work.
About 21,000 of them are in the Montreal region, where the Exo network is asking customers on the Candiac, Saint-Jérôme and Vaudreuil/Hudson lines to find another means of transportation.
Other transit lines affected by the potential work stoppage include TransLink’s West Coast Express in the Vancouver area, Metrolinx’s Milton Line and Hamilton GO Station on the Lakeshore Line in the Greater Toronto Area.
Ports
If Canadian ports don’t have a way to move cargo by rail, they can expect delays and slowdowns as containers build up.
The Port of Vancouver, where two-thirds of cargo arrives or departs by rail, said it expects disruptions to the movement of grain, potash, coal and other goods. The port said this week it expects increased traffic at Vancouver anchorages and around the southern Gulf Islands, and asked ships heading to Vancouver to slow down to reduce congestion.
The Montreal Port Authority said it plans to step up efforts to allow more trucks to use its terminals in the event of a work stoppage, but spokeswoman Mélanie Nadeau said some markets served by Montreal would face major challenges, including Ontario.
Retail trade
The Retail Council of Canada says the country’s largest brands often bring in products from Asia and Europe through the ports of Montreal and Vancouver. Work stoppages could halt the flow of goods and consumer products, ranging from food to clothing, furniture and even electronics, said council spokeswoman Michelle Wasylyshen.
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business also warned that any disruption to rail operations could be “devastating” for small businesses that rely on rail services to send and receive goods, and that they could lose sales and contracts if items are not delivered or received on time.
Basic products
The two railways involved in the labour dispute transport about $1 billion worth of goods a day, ranging from wheat to lumber, oil and consumer products, according to the Railway Association of Canada.
In 2022, some 315.7 million tonnes of goods were transported by rail, including 20.9 million tonnes of wheat, 6.9 million tonnes of canola, 48.6 million tonnes of coal and 18.2 million tonnes of iron ores and concentrates, Statistics Canada reported. Other high-demand commodities included potash, fertilizers, lumber and construction materials such as sand, gravel, rock and crushed stone.
Wade Sobkowich, who heads the Western Grain Elevator Association, said there is “no Plan B” to replace the 6,500 rail cars that haul bulk grain across the country.
Rail companies have already started refusing perishable items from grocery stores like meat, fries and bananas in anticipation of a possible strike, said Michael Graydon, CEO of Food, Health and Consumer Products Canada (FHCP).
International effects
U.S. railroads and business groups are also warning of the consequences of a work stoppage. The U.S. and Canadian chambers of commerce issued a joint statement urging the Canadian government to intervene.
U.S. railroads CSX and Norfolk Southern have shut down most cross-border shipping, while shipping giants like Hapag-Lloyd have drawn up “contingency plans” and others are rerouting goods.
with reporting from Tara Deschamps in Toronto, Christopher Reynolds in Montreal and Jeremy Simes in Regina