Michel Barnier raised alarms about the potential fallout from an upcoming censure vote, warning it could lead to government instability and necessitate a new Prime Minister appointment by Emmanuel Macron. Experts emphasize the tight timeline for budget approvals, with looming deadlines that may hinder comprehensive proposals. Constitutional tools, such as Article 47 and Article 45 of the LOLF, could help manage the situation, while the revival of provisional budgets remains legally questionable. Article 16 is seen as a risky political option.
Potential Consequences of Government Censure
Michel Barnier expressed his serious concerns regarding the upcoming vote on a motion of censure this Tuesday afternoon, cautioning deputies that such a decision could complicate matters significantly. Should Barnier’s government face a downfall, it would necessitate Emmanuel Macron to appoint a new Prime Minister. This governmental shift would also directly affect the budget proposals currently under examination, including the draft finance law (PLF), the draft finance law for social security (PLFSS), and the draft finance law for the end of management (PLFFG).
Experts warn that Parliament may not have sufficient time to review the budget before the new government takes charge, especially with a deadline looming on January 1, 2025. Constitutional expert Anne-Charlène Bezzina highlighted that the scenario of a government collapse is highly unmanageable, stating, “We can rule out this hypothesis because it would be unmanageable” regarding the timing of necessary budget approvals. If the motion of censure succeeds, a fresh finance law must be approved before December 31, 2024, but due to time constraints, it may not be a comprehensive proposal according to legal analysts Jean-Pierre Camby and Jean-Éric Schoettl.
Available Constitutional Tools
In the event of a new government formation, several constitutional instruments may come into play. One significant option is Article 47, paragraph 3, which empowers the government to issue its draft finance law by ordinance if Parliament has not reached a decision within seventy days, specifically by midnight on December 21. This ordinance requires approval from the Council of Ministers and must be signed by the President of the Republic. According to Bezzina, this article is crucial in preventing a situation akin to a governmental shutdown.
Moreover, Article 45 of the Organic Law on Finance Laws (LOLF) could also be utilized. It offers the government two pathways if it fails to submit a finance law on time: seeking Parliament’s separate vote on the revenue section before December 11, 2024, and allowing the expenditure section to be addressed later. Alternatively, the government could present a special finance law before December 19, 2024, to continue tax collection based on previous rates. Bezzina notes that this approach is the most likely route to avoid a budgetary crisis.
Should these options not materialize, a fallback could involve reviving the old system of provisional twelfths, which would permit the government to operate based on a fraction of the previous year’s budget until the new law is established. However, this method is not explicitly sanctioned by the current Constitution or the LOLF, raising questions about its legality.
Lastly, while Article 16 of the Constitution remains a remote possibility, it allows the President to take necessary measures in times of serious threat to the Republic’s institutions. However, experts, including Bezzina, deem the application of this article politically risky, especially as it has not been utilized for over sixty years.