(Paris) Ukraine’s energy supply this winter will be the “most severe” challenge since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned on Thursday, recommending ten measures to help the country restore its attacked infrastructure, in order to cope with the arrival of the cold.
“The Ukrainian energy system has survived the last two winters […]but this winter will be by far its most severe test yet,” IEA Director General Fatih Birol said in a report published on Thursday, which also expressed concern for Moldova after the halt in the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine announced for the end of 2024.
After the loss of “more than two-thirds” of Ukraine’s electricity production capacity since the Russian invasion, the report suggests a dozen solutions to be implemented quickly to repair or replace power plants damaged by Russian attacks or occupied by Russian troops, such as the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
The situation in Ukraine “presents one of the most pressing energy security issues in the world today,” warns the IEA, which is the energy agency for developed countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
In particular, it recommends speeding up the “delivery of equipment and spare parts” to repair damaged or destroyed power stations, and increasing the capacity to import electricity and gas from the European Union.
The report also highlights the need to strengthen “physical and information security of critical energy infrastructure” in Ukraine, to accelerate “decentralization” of electricity production and to invest in energy efficiency.
For Moldova, “winter could be destabilizing” too, the IEA worries.
Although the country is not exposed to Russian bombing like Ukraine, it depends on Russia for two-thirds of its electricity supply, as the main gas-fired power plant that supplies it is based in the pro-Russian breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria.
However, the halting of Russian gas transit via Ukraine beyond December 31 “creates significant uncertainty for gas deliveries to the Transnistria region and for Moldova’s electricity security,” the report emphasizes.
Ukraine announced at the end of August its intention not to renew the contract binding it until December 31 to Russia to transport Russian gas to Europe via its extensive network of gas pipelines.
Strengthening interconnections with European countries “is essential to support Moldova’s energy security,” the IEA said.