Three months before the European elections, and a few weeks after the farmers’ movement, senators are called to speak on the free trade treaty with Canada, to the great displeasure of the government.
Should the government be worried about a new parliamentary setback? The ratification of Ceta, the trade treaty between Canada and the European Union (EU), risks being rejected by senators during a vote organized on Thursday March 21. The executive may praise the benefits of this free trade agreement for the French economy and agriculture, but its arguments do not seem to convince elected officials on the left or the right. Several weeks after the start of the farmers’ mobilization, the opposition wants to bury this treaty which, according to them, threatens the French agricultural model and in particular livestock farming. Three months before the European election, this offensive is giving the presidential majority a cold sweat.
“It would be a bad signal”
Ceta has been applied for more than six years. It allows drastic reductions in customs duties between Canada and the EU on a large number of products, including food products. The free trade agreement came into force after its ratification by the European Parliament in February 2017 because the majority of the treaty (its trade aspect) falls within the competence of the EU. On the other hand, each of the 27 member countries must validate the investment component for the agreement to come into full force. In seven years, 17 countries have ratified it. In France, the National Assembly approved it in July 2019 after very heated debates and the anger of most agricultural unions.
But it was then never presented to the Senate, a mandatory step to initiate its ratification. If it finds itself on the agenda Thursday morning, it is thanks to the communist group. “Since the government has never found two hours of its time to make us vote on Ceta since 2019, we chose at the end of the fall to include its bill on the agenda of our parliamentary niche “justifies Cécile Cukierman, senator of the Loire and president of the communist group.
“During an election period, the agricultural crisis is a vector of all demagoguery and all daring”plague François Patriat, leader of the Renaissance senators, elected from Côte-d’Or. “It is a political blow as the Europeans approach”, pushes Isabelle Florennes, senator for Hauts-de-Seine and member of the centrist Union group. This ally of the presidential camp has also filed a referral motion to postpone the vote from Thursday until later.
“This is a subject of international scope, we cannot discuss it in a parliamentary niche.”
Isabelle Florennes, senator for Hauts-de-Seineat franceinfo
But this motion has little chance of being voted on because the communist senators can count on the votes of environmentalists, socialists and the right. As usual, no voting instructions were given, but “a fairly clear majority” elected officials from the Les Républicains party should oppose the ratification of Ceta, believes senator Max Brisson. Enough to hope to reach the 174 votes necessary to win the vote and perhaps definitively bury the ratification of Ceta, which puts the government under pressure. “It would be a bad signal to partners and sectors which would be very affected by this abandonment”we recognize in Matignon.
“Our speech was inaudible”
To try to rally as many senators as possible, but also public opinion, the executive has deployed a communications plan in recent days, with the help of television interviews, in front of camera videos for social networks and colorful visuals adorned with the slogan “Thursday, let’s say yes to #Ceta!” “I would just like to remind you that this agreement was greatly vilified and that the facts are stubborn, as the other said. They prove that this agreement is favorable overall for French and European exports and particularly for agriculture”assured Marc Fesneau, the Minister of Agriculture, on franceinfo. Franck Riester, the Minister Delegate in charge of Foreign Trade, for his part praised the “exports [en hausse] by more than 33% in six years”. According to him, exported cheeses have jumped by 60% thanks to the reduction in customs tariffs and the protection of protected designations of origin with Ceta.
Ministers on the front line “who do the job”, estimates Macronist François Patriat. But by his own admission, this should not be enough to convince a majority of senators. “Our speech was inaudible in the middle of an agricultural crisis”, he notes, while the unions mobilized since February were opposed to Ceta in 2019, and recently stepped up against another free trade agreement, with Mercosur, currently being negotiated. In this very electric context, the senators also received numerous requests, including a letter from the Canadian ambassador, a other Young Farmersdemands from export sectors and unions, while demonstrations are planned for Thursday in front of the Luxembourg Palace.
“Send a message to the Elysée”
If the referral motion is not adopted, everyone will put forward their arguments about the famous treaty during a debate prior to the vote. Communists will share their concerns “essentially on the question of breeding”explains Cécile Cukierman, who takes a dim view of the penetration of the French market by food products subject to less demanding Canadian standards than the French ones..
“It is unfair competition for our farmers, and also an incentive to transport meat between the two continents, with an environmental impact.”
Cécile Cukierman, senator of the Loireat franceinfo
Rarely in agreement with the Communists, the Republicans this time share their fears about the future of the beef industry and denounce the absence of mirror clauses, in order to avoid any unfair competition by imposing the same environmental and health standards on Canadian farmers. just in France. “Free trade must not promote trade distortion”warns Max Brisson, brushing aside the figures for the increase in French exports to Canada, “an obsolete and outdated catechism that the government recites to us”. The LR senators assume to take this vote for “send a message to the Elysée and Brussels”three months before an election for which they are credited with 7% of voting intentions in the polls.
“We have changed era, we are entering a period where sovereignty is crucial. We must have this debate, otherwise we fuel populism, the feeling that these European decisions escape the people.”
Max Brisson, senator of Pyrénées-Atlantiquesat franceinfo
Could this “message” remain a dead letter? If the Senate refuses the ratification of Ceta, it will then be up to the Assembly to decide. The government is free to set a date, or not, to debate it, but it could prove difficult to bury the issue in the middle of the debate on the EU and the agricultural crisis, with oppositions on the lookout. Unless an opposition group imitates the communist senators by once again taking advantage of a parliamentary niche.
“The vote will have an impact”
The challenge would then be significant for the government which no longer has the absolute majority as in 2019, when the Palais-Bourbon approved Ceta with 266 votes in favor. If MEPs in turn reject ratification, the treaty could theoretically be revoked throughout the EU. “Declaration 20 of the Council of Europe provides for the denunciation of the provisional application of Ceta if ratification fails for a member state”explains Alan Hervé, professor of public law at Sciences Po Rennes. “But the French government would have to officially notify Brussels.”
The scenario is possible but remains distant… The Parliament of Cyprus rejected ratification in the summer of 2020 (to protect halloumi, its national cheese), with no consequences at this stage on the treaty. “France’s vote will have an impact at EU level”, wants to believe the communist Cécile Cukierman. Will Camembert be more powerful than its Cypriot cousin? By inviting itself into the European campaign, Ceta risks in any case transforming itself into a political trap for the presidential majority. After having praised her merits, even if it meant attracting the wrath of farmers, she would be held responsible for the failure of ratification, a hard blow for this pro-European party.