John Kerry waited until the end of COP28 on Wednesday to say it: the American envoy believed, in the last 48 hours, that the Dubai conference was heading towards a fiasco.
The reason ? He did not name a country, but we can guess in his story the outlines of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and, more generally, the oil states of the Arab group.
“A minister from these countries told me: “John, you cannot ask us to commit economic suicide…”, he recalled at a press conference, a few hours after the adoption in Dubai of the first agreement of the history of the COPs to designate fossil fuels, by consensus of the 195 parties to the Paris Agreement.
“I didn’t think we would have a deal of this magnitude, to be honest…”
“It was unexpected,” agrees a European negotiator.
The non-Saudi
Who put the most pressure on the COP28 presidency held by the United Arab Emirates? “Its big brother”, Saudi Arabia, “then the Europeans and the island states, in the other direction”, said a European negotiator halfway through.
Because the history of COP28 is that of these countries which took a hostile position to any mention of fossil fuels in the face of an unprecedented coalition of nations demanding an “exit” from oil, gas and coal.
One of the keys to the compromise was to substitute the word “exit” (phase outin English) that of “transition”, in the text finalized during the last night by the president of the conference, Sultan al-Jaber.
A “finely calibrated”, “imperfect” text both for small threatened islands and for oil producers, admitted a member of his team.
Many countries refused a “binary choice”: talk about an “exit” from fossil fuels or only a “reduction”, this person explained on Monday. The famous word “transition” was seen as the outcome.
The ambitious
Despite this setback, so-called “ambitious” states, including those of Europe, Canada, Colombia, Chile and even Kenya, believe they have obtained a victory that was still unimaginable a year ago.
In Dubai, these diverse countries managed to stand together until the final hours. Notably thanks to the spectacular adoption, on the first day on November 30, of the implementation of the climate damage fund intended for vulnerable countries.
A very “thorny” subject evacuated from the start, which allowed these “ambitious” states of the North and South to no longer bicker and to fight the battle of fossil fuels together, deciphers a Western negotiator contacted Thursday by AFP .
When a first draft agreement presented Monday evening by Sultan al-Jaber simply spoke of “reduction”, this informal transcontinental alliance, associated with the island states, increased the number of meetings, until meeting Sultan al-Jaber.
This group of more than a hundred countries posed the threat to the Emirati of a lack of agreement which would have been disastrous.
The term of compromise
It was not Sultan al-Jaber who originated the mention of a “transition”.
In November, the Pacific Islands signed with Australia, a major coal producer, a text close to the COP28 formula, calling for a “transition away from coal, oil and gas” in accordance with scientific recommendations. to limit warming to 1.5°C.
During the crisis on Monday evening, during a meeting of all countries, this term reappeared in the mouths of… representatives of Australia and Norway, two Western producing countries.
Is there a difference between “exit” and “transition out”? Obviously, the supporters of the “exit” recognize this, while putting it into perspective.
On the French side, the entourage of the minister present in Dubai tried hard on Wednesday to convince journalists that the correct translation of “ transitioning away » was the same as that of “ phase out »: “exit gradually”.
China and United States
No consensus would have been possible without the approval of China and the United States, which between them send 40% of human-made greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
The Americans and Chinese had given the signal of what was acceptable to them as a compromise, a month before, in their so-called Sunnylands declaration. They encouraged the development of renewable energies to accelerate the “substitution” of coal, oil and gas “in the production of electricity”.
The world’s leading oil producer, the United States did not want to break this fragile balance with Beijing, leaving the “ambitious” in the lead in pleading for an “exit”.
An initial lack of enthusiasm, according to their European allies, later more reassured by some committed speeches from John Kerry.
But the main contribution of the United States was to ensure China’s final support, recognizes this negotiator. “And neutralizing China, in itself, is a remarkable result,” he said.
Methodical preparation
The Emirates’ methodical preparation over the past year also helped avoid a fiasco.
The appointment in January of Sultan al-Jaber, the boss of the oil company ADNOC, to chair COP28 provoked reactions ranging from irony to fury among observers.
His first months were dominated by his stubbornness in talking about reducing “emissions” rather than directly calling for reducing the burden of fossil fuels. Which he began to correct in June by speaking of an “inevitable” reduction.
His journey to more than 25 countries and the involvement of his team were received favorably.
“The Emirates behaved remarkably, everyone was included in the whole process,” Pedro Luis Pedroso, the Cuban diplomat who chairs the essential G77 + China group, comprising 134 developing countries, told AFP on Thursday.
“Honestly, I don’t think they came to the COP with a pre-written text,” he continues.
In the previous month, more than 40 consultations were held by the Emirati team of negotiators, led by Hana AlHashimi.
Last year, the Egyptians were very criticized by comparison. “We are all tired, except you, Mr. President,” said European Commissioner Frans Timmermans at the close of COP27. This year, the fatigue was, at least, universally shared.