Lebanon and Israel, neighboring countries and officially at war, sign Thursday, October 27 a “historic” agreement settling their maritime border dispute. Obtained through a long American mediation, it must remove the obstacles to the extraction of hydrocarbons in the Eastern Mediterranean and ensure the distribution of precious offshore gas deposits.
In Israel, diplomatic and security motivations
In the words of Prime Minister Yair Lapid, “It’s a political achievement”. He specifies it, this agreement “strengthens Israel’s security, freedom of action against Hezbollah and threats from the North”, “It’s not every day that an enemy country actually recognizes Israel, in writing and in front of the entire international community”, he explains. It is true, Israel’s motivations are primarily diplomatic and security-related, but economic benefits are expected from the exploitation of the deposits. Because Israel needs gas, this agreement is therefore a way of reducing its energy dependence, of also reducing the cost of energy and of boosting exports to Europe, which has needed it since the start of the war in Ukraine. And then, it was time for the government of Yair Lapid to sign this agreement a few days before the Israeli legislative elections scheduled for Tuesday, November 1: the outgoing Prime Minister logically intends to capitalize on this progress.
But not everyone is happy with the deal. At the beginning of October, former Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu had promised to torpedo this agreement if he returned to power. He considered it to be a “historic surrender” against Hezbollah. Some right-wing organizations had then filed appeals to the Supreme Court against the maritime agreement, appeals which were rejected. Since then, the idea seems rather attractive, especially in its ability to “stabilize” relations with Lebanon. According to a former general of the Israeli army, the agreement mainly involves the recognition of a border, certainly maritime, but which, he hopes, could lead to a future recognition of a land border that Lebanon does not never recognized. As for the holding of this agreement over time, “nothing is won yet” tempers a diplomatic source. “It’s an agreement on the text, which holds together thanks to its ambiguities, and which remains structurally fragile”, he develops. Everything will also depend on the quantity of gas in the deposits and the distribution made of the latter.
In Lebanon, illusory economic benefits for the population
In the political class in place, and in particular on the side of President Michel Aoun, we welcome the declarations of this historic agreement. For the president, who ends his term in four days, this is good news, in an attempt to forget his catastrophic record: the political deadlock is total, the investigation into the explosion in the port of Beirut is at a standstill. , and 80% of the population lives below the poverty line. This agreement is therefore above all a way for Michel Aoun to leave with his head held high.
It is true that from a political and diplomatic point of view, this agreement is historic: for the first time, Hezbollah, which controls the southern zone where this maritime border is located, has tacitly given its approval to sign an agreement with its enemy always. It is almost a recognition of the Jewish state by the very powerful Shiite militia. Some feared a new war, or at least a renewed tension between Hezbollah and Israel. This agreement should calm, at least for a time, the situation between the two rivals, officially still at war.
On the Lebanese side, at best they don’t think much of it, and at worst, not much good. With this agreement, many politicians predict a bright future for Lebanon thanks to the gas that would be in the negotiated area. Gas that would allow the country to reap billions of dollars. They promise a way out of the economic crisis. Except that in fact, nobody knows yet if there is gas in sufficient quantity, if it is exploitable and even less profitable. We will have to wait at least a year for TotalEnergies to deliver its verdict. For the moment, therefore, it is communication on completely hypothetical profits. The Lebanese are not mistaken and even if in five or six years, the time to build the infrastructure, Lebanon becomes a major gas exporting country, most people here know very well that almost no citizen will benefit from this financial windfall. Looting of natural resources and embezzlement of public funds are national sports here. So if there is gas, the money will likely go into the pockets of corrupt political leaders. Always the same… So there aren’t many people in Lebanon, apart from a few political parties, who are happy with this border agreement.