Many countries are worried about a conflagration in the region after Iran sent drones and missiles to Israeli soil. The United States has warned that it will not support a direct response to Tehran.
Iran considers the matter “close”, but how will Israel react? On the night of Saturday April 13 to Sunday April 14, Iran carried out an unprecedented attack on Israeli soil, during which “more than 300 drones and missiles” were launched on the Jewish state, according to the Israeli army. The latter ensures that “99% of shots” were intercepted, thanks in particular to the help of the United States and the United Kingdom. Following this attack, the international community expressed great concern about the risks of an escalation in the region.
Tension between Iran and Israel escalated on April 1, when a raid killed 13 people in an Iranian diplomatic building in Syria. The attack was attributed to Israel, but Tel Aviv has not confirmed it.
Washington warned on Sunday that the United States would not support any Israeli response in Iran.
A “contained” response?
This is the first time that Iran has directly struck Israeli soil. But tensions between the two countries are far from new. For years, the two countries have opposed each other in a “shadow war” whose objective is to maintain sufficient deterrence to avoid any frontal attack on their territory, develops the International Crisis Group, an NGO specializing in conflict research.
In recent years, Israel has been accused of carrying out actions to sabotage the Iranian nuclear program, recalls the BBC, or to have carried out cyberattacks, continues the Times of Israel. In late 2023, Israel intensified its attacks in Syria, targetings members of the Revolutionary Guards and its Quds Force. December 25th, the highest ranking member of the Revolutionary Guards in Syria, Razi Moussavi was killed in an attack blamed on the Jewish state. On January 20, an Israeli strike in Damascus killed 10 people, including five members of the Revolutionary Guards.
According to Héloïse Fayet, researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), Israelis could choose to retaliate against Iranian strikes by continuing this “shadow war”. This could take the form “cyberattacks carried out against sensitive Iranian sites”, she tells franceinfo. Or of the “cyber operations resulting in the blockade of ports or targeting of Iranian energy infrastructure”, adds David Rigoulet-Roze, specialist in the Middle East, also an associate researcher at Ifri.
“We can imagine a response strictly confined to an Iranian military base or port area. At night for example, to avoid any risk of civilian deaths in Iran.”
Frédéric Encel, specialist in geopolitics at Sciences Po Parison franceinfo
Israel could choose this response “content” so as not to cause “another significant Iranian response”, analyzes the Atlantic Council, an American think tank specializing in international relations. Especially since the Iranian attack did little damage on Israeli soil. A 7-year-old child was hit by shards of ballistic missiles, notes the Times of Israel, Butonly a few ballistic missiles are “came in and touched lightly” the country, the Israeli army said.
Very risky attacks on Iranian soil
Will the Israeli government choose a more direct response? “We will defeat all our enemies” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared on X on Sunday morning. “If Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will react and attack in Iran,” warned Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz on Wednesday in a message in Persian on X.
“The case is supposed to be closed for Iran, but the same is unlikely to be the case for Israel. observes David Rigoulet-Roze. Israel’s software is that any attack mechanically implies a response at a potentially higher level to ensure a form of deterrence prevails.”
“The Israelis will want to restore a potentially damaged deterrent, and make this response public.”
David Rigoulet-Roze, Middle East specialistat franceinfo
This military response could also materialize in the continuation of fighting with groups allied to Iran, in Syria or Lebanon. According to the Lebanese National News Agency, an Israeli strike targeted a Hezbollah building in eastern Lebanon on Sunday morning and the Israeli army carried out several raids against localities in southern Lebanon, which borders Israel.
Another possibility: targeting Iranian nuclear facilities. “To attack in depth and destroy nuclear sites, Israel would need bunker busters [bombes capables d’atteindre des cibles fortifiées]. However, its current arsenal is quite limited. observes Héloïse Fayet. Such an attack could also convince Tehran to accelerate its program to obtain nuclear weapons. The Jewish state could instead use long-range drones or missiles “but it would still be very escalatory”warns Héloïse Fayet.
“The use of drones or long-range missiles, without American support – for intelligence, targeting, refueling – would be even more complex.”
Héloïse Fayet, researcher at Ifriat franceinfo
For its part, Iran “can intensify its actions if it wishes because it has a choice of various options, including Hezbollah, maritime disruptions or strikes on vulnerable Israeli targets abroad”, analysis from AFP Nishank Motwani, expert at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Washington. But the country may not have the capacity to cope over the long term. “Iran’s military equipment is, at best, only suitable for asymmetric warfare. Iran cannot count on international support, even from its allies China and Russia, esteemed by the Guardian Maryam Alemzadeh, professor of Iranian history and politics at the University of Oxford. Its economy is on the brink of collapse due to years of international sanctions, corruption and poor governance.”
The diplomatic solution to avoid any escalation
Faced with the risks of spiraling, the diplomatic route remains. Many countries have called on Israel and Iran to avoid any escalation. The UN Security Council is due to meet urgently on Sunday evening, while G7 members met at a virtual summit to send “messages to Israel” and remember that “The greatest caution is necessary to prevent the situation from getting worse.” US President Joe Biden reiterated his support “unshakeable” to Israel while warning that he would not support Israel in a direct attack on Iran. “The Americans fear being dragged into a direct confrontation with Iran against their will”continues David Rigoulet-Roze.
“The United States finds itself being the arbiter who must avoid overtime at all costs.”
Héloïse Fayetat franceinfo
Tehran has warned the United States, urging it to “stay away” of its conflict with Israel. “Any threat emanating from the American terrorist government and the Zionist regime (…) will result in a reciprocal and proportionate response from the Islamic Republic of Iran”warned the Revolutionary Guards.
Even if the United States tries to reason with Israel, its influence is no longer the same as during the Cold War, Bertrand Badie, specialist in international relations, believes on franceinfo: “The USA no longer has control and Israel likes to show it,” he believes. The Jewish state, for example, did not warn Washington of its strike on an Iranian diplomatic building in Syria in early April, recalls the Washington Post.