A new week of talks begins, Monday, February 7, in order to work towards a de-escalation between Ukraine and Russia. At a time when the American intelligence services fear the preparation of a large-scale invasion of Ukrainian territory by the Russian army, Emmanuel Macron goes to Moscow on Monday to meet his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.
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The Head of State will continue his diplomatic tour by going to Kiev on Tuesday, to meet the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will be in Washington on Monday to meet US President Joe Biden before traveling to Ukraine and Russia next week.
For several weeks, Emmanuel Macron has sought to play a mediating role in this crisis. Between repeated calls and visits, relaunch of the so-called “Normandy” format and call for direct dialogue between Brussels and Moscow, the French president is increasing his attempts to avoid a conflict at the gates of Europe. Westerners accuse the Russian authorities of having massed some 100,000 soldiers on its border with Ukraine, while Moscow denies and demands, for its security, a freeze on NATO enlargement in the east of Europe.
Before the meeting with Putin, repeated exchanges
In a few weeks, Emmanuel Macron has multiplied contacts with his Russian counterpart. At the beginning of February, the head of state exchanged twice in three days with the Russian president, while communicating regularly with his Ukrainian counterpart. Thursday, the French President thus spoke by telephone with Vladimir Putin for 45 minutes, then for about an hour with Volodymyr Zelensky, before contacting the Polish President, Andrzej Duda. Calls preceded by an exchange with Joe Biden, late Wednesday.
These contacts continued over the weekend. “with European partners and allies”, with the aim of a “perfect co-ordination” before’“initiative” French of the meeting with Vladimir Putin. Over the weekend, Emmanuel Macron met with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, as well as with the leaders of the Baltic countries. New exchanges with Olaf Scholz and Joe Biden also took place on Friday and Sunday.
Monday in Moscow, Emmanuel Macron will try to“go into contact, engage in negotiation in the clearest terms possible”, declared the Elysée. “It’s not about fixing everything” but to try to get a “de-escalation“. The leaders are decided to “get to the bottom of things”assumes the presidency.
“We have to be very realistic. We will not obtain unilateral gestures, but it is essential to avoid a deterioration of the situation before building mechanisms and gestures of mutual trust. (…) Our role is preventive, it tension must be reduced through dialogue and an armed conflict must be avoided.”
Emmanuel Macronin the “Sunday newspaper”
The meeting between the French and Russian leaders, the first since their meeting at Fort de Brégançon (Var), in the summer of 2019, is due to start in the afternoon and could continue for part of the evening. The French President said he was ready to discuss with Moscow security and military alliances in Europe, but Paris cannot decide on this subject alone. The Head of State, for his part, is seeking a sign from the Kremlin in favor of de-escalation.
However, if Moscow deems this discussion “very important”, “the situation is too complex to expect decisive breakthroughs after a single meeting”Vladimir Putin’s spokesman warned on Monday, Dmitry Peskov.
The use of the so-called “Normandy” format
At the end of this new diplomatic sequence, “we will have to take stock” and assess the possibility of a “new summit in Paris in Normandy format”, said the Elysée. This diplomatic format, which brings together France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia, is one of the other levers of negotiations involving Paris. He had started in Ouistreham (Calvados) in 2014, for implement the Minsk peace accords in the separatist enclaves of Donbass in eastern Ukraine.
After a final meeting on September 17, 2021, Russia agreed to resume this format on January 26, during a meeting organized in Paris. The advisers to the French, Russian and Ukrainian presidents and to the German chancellor met for more than eight hours at the Elysée, in order to relaunch this peace process.
“The objective was to send a signal of detente in a context with many questions about Russian intentions. We got a good signal in difficult conditions. The re-engagement we were looking for”, declared the Elysée at the end of this meeting. In a joint communiqué, the negotiators affirmed their “unconditional respect for the ceasefire” in eastern Ukraine. “It’s important today, where everyone is wondering about Vladimir Putin’s intentions, and the possibility of destabilization that could occur in the Donbass or on the contact line”, underlined the French presidency. The press release is also the “first significant document on which we manage to agree since December 2019”in turn greeted the Ukrainian negotiator, Andriï Iermak.
A deep disagreement nevertheless persists between Moscow and Kiev on the question of dialogue between the Ukrainian authorities and the pro-Russian separatists. A direct dialogue with these separatists, requested by Moscow, is indeed a “Red line” for Ukraine, which refuses it, recalled the Elysée. And as pointed out byRussian negotiator, Dmitry Kozak, the situation in eastern Ukraine and tensions between Kyiv and Moscow on the border remain “two different things”.
Efforts for an EU-Russia dialogue
A few days before his meeting with Vladimir Putin, Emmanuel Macron also spoke with the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, about France’s responsibility in these negotiations, as President of the Council of the European Union.
Paris, which seeks to pose as a European leader, pleads in parallel for a direct dialogue between Brussels and Moscow. “What we have to do is stay united as Westerners, be present as Europeans. Is the European Union doing enough? Probably not today”recently acknowledged the French Secretary of State for European Affairs, Clément Beaune, at the “Grand Rendez-vous” of Europe 1, CNews and The echoes. It is necessary that “we have, as the European Union (…), proposals, an organized, regular dialogue with Russia, while being firm”he insisted.
During his speech to MEPs in Strasbourg on January 19, Emmanuel Macron had also called for a dialogue between Brussels and Moscow on “a new security order in Europe”. “We must build it between Europeans, then share it with our allies within the framework of NATO, then then propose it to Russia for negotiation”he had launched.
“The security of our continent requires a strategic rearmament of our Europe as a power of peace and balance, in particular in the dialogue with Russia.”
Emmanuel Macronduring his speech to the European Parliament
However, at this stage, a direct dialogue with Brussels is not on the agenda for the Kremlin. “I don’t even know how the EU sees its participation in the security negotiations,” said in January the head of Russian diplomacy, Sergei Lavrov, relief RFI. “Do you want to know if it is possible to establish a channel with the EU on security issues, separate from the United States and NATO? Frankly, I do not know. United and NATO”, he said at a press conference.
“Russia does not want to talk to the EU, observed with AFP Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, from the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). In Germany, the new coalition has not yet taken its marks. So Macron is the voice of Europe in the dialogue with Putin.”