how do Russian digital interference campaigns threaten the vote?

Viginum, the French organization responsible for monitoring foreign digital interference, identified in early February nearly 200 sites massively relaying misleading content.

“France no longer issues visas to Russian students”, “France calls for radical measures against Zelensky”, “Emmanuel Macron cancels his trip to kyiv: he is afraid of bombs”… These are the kinds of false allegations available on the 200 “information portals” identified in a report published Monday February 12 by Viginum, the French organization responsible for monitoring foreign digital interference.

After four months of work, the organization uncovered a network “structured and coordinated (…) of sites with similar characteristics, which broadcast pro-Russian content to an international audience”in Europe and the United States. Called “Portal Kombat” by the French authorities, this network is similar to a new disinformation campaign targeting European countries. In a note intended for law enforcement, the General Directorate of Internal Security also warned, Friday February 23, of “subversive actions” carried out by Russian intelligence services.

A few days later, Gérald Darmanin assured that Moscow was now “the main enemy” from France “in information warfare”. Questioned by the Senate Law Committee on Tuesday February 27, the Minister of the Interior returned to the affair of the Stars of David tagged on the facades of buildings in Paris and the Paris region in October, to repeat that it was the fruit of “proxy” Russian (intermediaries), seeing it as an illustration of this threat of interference. As the European elections approach, specialists and elected officials are on their guard.

A “very high” risk

Doctoral student at the Strategic Research Institute of the military school, Jeanne Maurin-Bonini discusses the functioning of the portals identified by Viginum. “These sites relay misleading or false stories allegedly created by Russia. It targets Western countries, but also international organizations such as NATO, the UN, the European Union in order to discredit them.explains this expert. On January 10, 2024, the World Economic Forum published a report which ranks disinformation as the number one global risk in 2025 and 2026, ahead of global warming or armed conflicts.

“Despite the identification of these networks, their operations continue continuously on social networks.”

Jeanne Maurin-Bonini, researcher

at franceinfo

Renaissance MP Constance Le Grip, rapporteur to the National Assembly of the commission of inquiry into foreign interference, confirms that this threat is “very high” in this election year. According to this elected representative of the majority, There is “a desire of the Russian regime to amplify its destabilizing maneuvers, construction of alternative narratives and manipulation of opinion to tilt the vote of voters towards certain parties more complacent towards him than others”.

For her part, Nathalie Loiseau, Renew MEP (center) whose phone was infected by Pegasus spyware, said “take this risk very seriously” of interference. “Lhe very project of a European Union is a project to which Russia is hostile. And anything that could aim to disunite or divide the European Union is good for Russia.” explains the one who also chairs the Defense subcommittee in the European Parliament.

Ukraine targeted

The international context has exacerbated this threat, according to Jeanne Maurin-Bonini. “On the occasion of these elections,“Russia could carry out campaigns to manipulate information on the subject of support for Ukraine, but also on other divisive subjects in Europe, such as immigration.”explains the researcher. For Rachid Temal, PS senator newly appointed rapporteur of the commission of inquiry on public policies in the face of foreign influence operations, Russia “uses a narrative“based on the war in Ukraine”to weigh again on the European Union”, as has already been the case for past interference, such as during the Brexit vote in 2016.

Latest example: a viral video, falsely attributed to France 24, accuses Ukraine of having planned to assassinate the French president, which would have pushed the latter to cancel a trip there. It is actually a deepfake, a montage made using artificial intelligence to recreate faces. The international news channel denounced “a doctored video, making one say [ses] journalists comments he never made”.

A diplomatic source also denied the authenticity of these images, denouncing Russia as an instrumentalist. And for good reason: the fake video was widely relayed on Russian networks. “Macron appears to have been so afraid of a real or alleged assassination in the Nazi city of kyiv. that he has “cancelled his trip to this city”declared Dmitri Medvedev, former head of state and vice-president of the Russian Security Council, in a post on the social network X, Wednesday February 14. The Russian news agency Anna very quickly relayed these comments on Telegram, based on this “report from the television channel France 24” to relay this rumor.

Artificial intelligence, an additional risk

Advances in generative artificial intelligence programs make this type of manipulation easier. “Access of AI to a wider audience helps reduce the costs of disinformation”, confirms Jeanne Maurin-Bonini. A note from the European Parliament’s research service (PDF document) reported in October 2023 that “THE deepfakes had a huge potential for misinformation (false or inaccurate information), or even disinformation (information intended to mislead), particularly through the creation of memes and humorous video content, which often go viral online.

Faced with these new challenges, some players in the sector have decided to take the lead in preventing their products from being used for purposes policies. In January, the Californian company OpenAI, creator of generative artificial intelligence software such as ChatGPT or Dall-E, for example banned the use of its technology to create conversational robots that would imitate candidates. In the United States, ChatGPT has also been programmed to refer voters to a recognized independent organization when they ask about the conduct of the vote. “We want to be sure that our technology will not be used in a way that causes harm.” to the democratic process, explained OpenAI.

Worrying precedents

In any case, artificial intelligence only reinforces attempts at Russian interference that have existed for a long time on the European continent. In addition to accusations of interference in the 2016 Brexit vote, Russia has also been suspected of acting to support the referendum organized by the Catalan independence government in 2017. According to Madrid, groups based in Russia have used social networks to carry out a campaign of “disinformation” on the internet regarding the crisis which shook the country at the time.

In France, it was the so-called “MacronLeaks” affair which the same year shone the spotlight on interference Russians. Russia had been accused of having hacked the campaign team of candidate Emmanuel Macron and broadcast several thousand internal emails on social networks, a few days before the second round of the presidential election.

“Russia has a long history of interference.”

Nathalie Loiseau, Renew MEP and chair of the Defense subcommittee

at franceinfo

In June 2023, Viginum finally highlighted Operation Doppelganger. The technique used by pro-Russian hackers consisted of creating sites imitating those of major national media or government institutions to disseminate false information. Among the sites copied were those of Parisianof Figaroof World or even 20 minutesas well as institutional sites, such as that of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

What impact can these attempts at destabilization really have? “It is important not to overestimate the threat of interference at the risk of discrediting and delegitimizing the election”shade Jeanne Maurin-Bonin. On a European scale, “it is unlikely that there will be a major disinformation campaign that really tilts the election”, assures the researcher. She nevertheless warns against the possibility that there is “several simultaneous campaigns” Who “sow confusion on different subjects and contribute to the polarization of debates and the increase in already existing tensions.”


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