The former president and Republican presidential candidate was shot in the right ear at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday night. The shooting left one participant dead and two seriously injured.
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A turning point, less than four months before the American presidential election. Former Republican President Donald Trump, once again a candidate for the supreme office, was injured in the right ear and rushed to hospital on Saturday, July 13, during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania (United States). “Tonight we witnessed what we call an assassination attempt on our former President Donald Trump,” summarized Kevin Rojek, an FBI official.
A striking image of the event – Donald Trump with his fist raised, blood on his face as he is carried out – was quickly picked up on social networks by his son, Eric Trump. With a very political caption: “This is the fighter America needs.” This assassination attempt already marks a high point in the presidential campaign, two days before the Republican Party convention on Monday in Wisconsin. How will it influence the rest of the campaign, and perhaps the election? Some answers.
“What will be decisive is what we learn from the specific facts, Ludivine Gilli points out to franceinfo, Director of the North American Observatory at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. These facts will influence the interpretation and use made of both sides.” The question of the motivations of the shooter, identified as Thomas Matthew Crooks, is particularly raised. killed by the Secret Service. A young man registered as a Republican voter, who had donated $15 to a progressive political action committee.
A “battle of stories” begins around the facts, warns on franceinfo Marie-Cécile Naves, research director at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris), who fears that the “conspiracy theory” is getting involved in the affair. Republican Senator JD Vance, Donald Trump’s possible running mate for the November 5 election, has already denounced the “rhetoric” of Joe Biden who, according to him, has “directly leads” to this assassination attempt.
“Knowing the Trumpist allies within the Republican Party, we can suspect that they will repeat these accusations before any formal explanation, anticipates Ludivine Gilli. Even if he is an unbalanced Republican acting for non-political reasons, that would not stop them not to push this message.” The Republican convention, a major event to officially nominate Donald Trump as the conservative candidate for the White House, “can make certain theories resonate in isolation” on the attack, continues the specialist of the United States. Thus giving them more weight and visibility.
Since Saturday, conspiracy theories about the assassination attempt have already been rife on social networks, reports the New York Times.
Over the coming weeks, Donald Trump and his supporters could be tempted to play on the populist candidate’s victim image, after this attack. A speech perfectly aligned with his strategy of victimization, over the course of the many legal cases targeting him. The former president has constantly presented himself as the target of a political elite, because he would be a protector of the “real” American people.He speaks of a cabal of the elite against them”observed political scientist Hans Noel, from Georgetown University (United States) at the beginning of the year to franceinfo. A willingly conspiratorial story, which could serve him again today. The question, continues Ludivine Gilli, is whether the candidate intends to use these same springs after the attack.
“Donald Trump is a character who is used to pretending to be a victim. Here, he is in fact a victim.”
Ludivine Gilli, United States specialistto franceinfo
Could this victim narrative allow Donald Trump to capture new votes as the presidential election approaches? “If he uses authoritarian rhetoric, presenting himself as the direct target of attacks from the Democratic camp, this will activate the base that is already his,” notes Ludivine Gilli. But “By fanning the flames, there is a significant risk of discouraging independent voters,” analyzes the researcher.
Political scientist Costas Panagopoulos, head of the political science department at Northeastern University (USA), also has mixed views on the event. The assassination attempt could “to generate sympathy for Donald Trump”, but also harm him, he writes. “Many people believe he has stoked political violence and division for political gain, exacerbating polarization in America with inflammatory rhetoric.”
The shootings during a rally in Butler on Saturday night left one person dead and two seriously injured, according to police. They are a new reminder of the extent of gun violence in the United States and the failures in gun control. For Professor James Alan Fox, also of Northeastern University, the attack could put the issue of guns back at the heart of the campaign, particularly that of the Republicans. On the Democratic side, “They will probably put this argument [d’un meilleur contrôle des armes à feu] ahead”, Ludivine Gilli points out. The effect of these speeches could however be limited, as reforms are difficult on the subject.
For Democrats, the attempted assassination of Donald Trump also marks a milestone in Joe Biden’s campaign, after two weeks of questions and concerns about his ability to run again. A campaign “who didn’t need a hard blow” additional, points out Ludivine Gilli. For the historian, the event in Pennsylvania “complicates the discourse of protecting democracy and institutions” carried by Joe Biden, facing a Donald Trump whom he presents as a threat to American democracy. “He is president and his political opponent is the victim of an assassination attempt. In terms of a record to defend, it is difficult.”