A reprieve before the end of the game? Boris Johnson survived, on Monday January 31, the publication of a first version of a damning administrative report on “Partygate”, this scandal caused by parties given at 10 Downing Street during the confinements of 2020 and 2021. members of the House of Commons, the British Prime Minister admitted “leadership mistakes” and “unwarranted gatherings”. “I’m sorry for the things we just didn’t do well,” he declared, assuring that he was going to reorganize his cabinet and that his government remained “worth of trust”.
The head of the conservative government, however, refused to leave his post, saying he was waiting for the next results of a police investigation, containing more than 300 images and 500 pages of information. This investigation focuses on parties organized in his work residence and at his home, with relatives and collaborators. Its conclusions will be decisive. But for now, the British prime minister is holding firm.
So far, Boris Johnson has mainly sought to save time. With each accusation, “He immediately went on the attack and has always done what he likes to do, with a lot of noise and gesticulation: denying and blaming others”observes Jon Henley, Paris correspondent for the daily The Guardian. “He tried to salvage what was possible, diverting attention and repeating that we had to wait for the conclusions of the police investigation”adds Florence Faucher, professor at the Center for European Studies and Comparative Politics (CEE) at Sciences Po.
But over the revelations, several voices, in the opposition and the majority, were raised to call for his resignation. In a rousing speech in Westminster on Monday, Labor leader Keir Starmer accused Boris Johnson of taking everyone “for idiots”.
“Of course he [démissionnera] not because he is a shameless man, and as he has done throughout his life, he has harmed everyone and everything around him.”
Keir Starmer, Labor leaderbefore the House of Commons
“The Prime Minister lied and deceived the House, so he must resign”added Ian Blackford, leader of the Scottish independence party (SNP), asked to leave the enclosure after his speech.
Among the Conservatives, several parliamentarians are also calling on Boris Johnson to resign. Tory MP David Davis, former Secretary of State for Brexit, implored the Prime Minister to resign on January 19. “In the name of God, go!” he launched, in front of the parliamentarians. Little talkative until then, other tenors of the party joined this call on Monday. Former head of government Theresa May sharply criticized her successor, asking if he “hadn’t read the rules, if he didn’t understand what they meant or if he thought the rules didn’t apply to Downing Street”.
At the end of the day, MP and ministerial adviser Angela Richardson became the first member of the government to leave her post because of her “deep disappointment” vis-à-vis Boris Johnson and the “Downing Street number 10 failings”.
Despite this unprecedented crisis, Boris Johnson still seems to be in place. During a meeting with members of his party after the parliamentary session on Monday, the Prime Minister received the (more discreet) support of several Tories. “It was a difficult day”but the Prime Minister enjoys support and no one has asked him to leave, according to Peterborough MP Paul Bristow, quoted by The Guardian*. “I listened carefully to the Prime Minister (…) He made promises to change his way of doing things (…) and I support him in this process“assured Gary Sambrook, MP for Birmingham, on Twitter*.
“Many Tories continue to see Boris Johnson as a flamboyant leader, as the best candidate to win an election, which is their main interest”, analyzes Martin Smith, professor of political science at the University of York. In 2019, Boris Johnson won a resounding victory in the legislative elections with 43% of the vote, the best score for the Conservatives since the Thatcher era in 1987, recalls The Economist*. ‘Red Wall’ constituencies in the north of England and Wales, historically on the left, have swung to the right thanks to the style of Boris Johnson and his promise to “get the Brexit done” (“accomplish Brexit”). Of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, Boris Johnson won 365 (359 remain), ensuring the Conservatives a comfortable majority.
“Many young MPs first entered Parliament thanks to Boris Johnson. They owe their jobs to him and are reluctant to give them up.”
Jon Henley, European correspondent for the “Guardian”at franceinfo
Once in power, the Prime Minister also “succeeded in ousting the conservative old guard, which was rather anti-Brexit, and placed its most loyal supporters in its cabinet [il faut un poste parlementaire pour être au gouvernement]. These elected officials are therefore bound by government solidarity as long as they do not resign. There is a dependencypoints out Florence Faucher.
An internal procedure has been launched to try to oust Boris Johnson from the Conservative Party, but it is struggling to succeed. The 1922 committee, to which the Conservative MPs who have no function in the government belong, can trigger a “vote of no confidence” against the Prime Minister. This requires that 15% of the deputies of the majority (54 elected) send a letter to this effect to the committee. If the Prime Minister loses this vote, new elections must be held. But the number of letters received by the committee secretary is one of Westminster’s best-kept secrets. With the process only occurring once in 12 months and no natural successor coming out of the ranks, MPs tempted by rebellion might opt for caution.
“Losing a Prime Minister after only two years in office would be a huge setback for the Tories. There is no consensus on a new figure to replace him, which would make holding new elections very complicated.”
Martin Smith, professor of political science at the University of Yorkat franceinfo
However, a few names are circulating to replace Boris Johnson, such as the Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, Liz Truss, or the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak. “But they are not unanimous”, notes Martin Smith. The appointment procedure also makes it difficult to replace Boris Johnson quickly. “Conservative MPs vote for the candidates and then for the two finalists. Party members then nominate the Prime Minister, who may therefore turn out to be different from the choice of MPs”, summarizes Martin Smith.
The Tories’ dilemma is whether or not Boris Johnson remains in the best position to win the 2024 legislative elections, says Florence Faucher. “Even if he suffers a dizzying fall in favorable opinions, the elections are more than two years away”, she recalls. Until then,“he could get away with creating a diversion, as he is starting to do by going to Ukraine” or by announcing a “Brexit freedoms” bill. The electoral impact of this “Partygate” which drags on has however already been felt. In December 2021, the Tories lost North Shropshire, a historic right-wing stronghold, in a partial legislative election.
In addition to advantageous institutional mechanisms, Boris Johnson can count on his character in the face of the storm. “He is an ambitious man who does not assume his responsibilities and who is used to lying to get by”, summarizes Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. Blunders and lies mark the career of the former mayor of London.
This former journalist was fired from Times in 1988 for making up a quote. In 2004, while a member of the Tories’ shadow cabinet, he lied to his boss about an extramarital affair and was again dismissed. In 2006, guest of the program “Booktalk” of the BBC *, he assumes: “I have a brilliant new strategy, which is to make so many blunders that nobody knows what to focus on (…) You bombard the media with so many blunders that they are overwhelmed.”
“It’s often helpful to give the impression that you don’t know what’s going on on purpose because it may be the truth, but people won’t be able to tell the difference.”
Boris Johnsonin the documentary “In the head of Boris Johnson” on Arte
In 2016, he covered buses with a false advertisement claiming that the United Kingdom was sending “350 million pounds weekly to the EU”, which contributes to the victory of “Leave” at the time of the Brexit vote.
“He always relied on his charm, his humor and his very flexible relationship with the truth to get by, comments Jon Henley. Somehow he’s always been true to himself, even if it’s a very particular form of integrity.”
“The real scandal is not the parties or the number of lies told, it’s that everyone always knew he was like that. But the Tories chose him as leader because he was a winning machine They prioritized power over governance.”
A resignation does not even seem possible, according to researcher Martin Smith. “It’s possible he’s convinced he’s done nothing wrong. Leaving two years after coming to power with a large majority, after winning Brexit and being nominated as Tory leader, would personally very humiliating”, he backs up.
The possible departure of the Prime Minister therefore appears to be linked to when the Conservative MPs will see in him a weight rather than an asset. The regional elections in May could outline a first response. At any rate, “These scandals will remain devastating to British democracypredicts Martin Smith. Voters’ confidence in the political system has been eroded and it will take a long time to regain it.”
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