The public deficit risks exceeding 6% of GDP in 2024. Just a year ago, it still seemed under control. In an investigation, the Œil du 20 Heures shows how confidential notes from Bercy were ignored.
As early as last fall, confidential notes from Bercy that we obtained alerted us to the state of public finances. On November 28, 2023, in a memo, the administration warned the cabinet of Bruno Le Maire, Minister of the Economy that “French activity slowed more markedly than expected”.
We must remain cautious but the trend is not good.
Bertrand Dumont, Director General of the Treasury
A few days later, on December 7, a new note indicates that due to a lack of revenue, the deficit for the year 2023 would increase by 9.2 billion euros. Which would also worsen the deficit in 2024. The Director General of the Treasury, however, specifies that the figures are not yet final: “We must remain cautious but the trend is not good.”
Thomas Cazenave, former Minister for Public Accounts, explains why: “When you are in charge, to be able to act, you must have the right information and when the administration departments tell you: “it is too early to act, it is too early to communicate”, it is normal that we wait until you see clearly.”
To wait for. This is undoubtedly why, at the beginning of January 2024, during his wishes, Bruno Le Maire remains reassuring: “This 4.4% deficit is not a whim of the Minister of Finance, it is a collective objective set by the President of the Republic.” , adding that “the turning point in the recovery of our public finances has been taken and will be held firmly.”
However, according to a new confidential note issued a month later, the deficit reached 5.7% of GDP, very far from the objective of 4.4%. A difference of 35 billion euros, the equivalent of the budget of the Ministry of the Interior.
We maintain the objective of a public deficit at 4.4%.
Two days after this note, the minister appeared on the television news to announce 10 billion euros in savings, but still no mention of a debt slippage. He assures: “We are maintaining the objective of a public deficit at 4.4%. When I say that we need to make savings, it is to keep control of our public finances”.
We will have to wait three more weeks, and an interview in the daily Le Monde for Bruno Le Maire to admit that public finances are slipping. This surprise announcement from the minister arouses the anger of Jean-François Husson, Republican senator and general budget rapporteur: “I don’t understand. The government assured us that it could meet the objectives and rectify the accounts. And there, That unscrew completely.”
On March 21, the rapporteur went to Bercy to demand the documents explaining the extent of the deterioration: “And there, in three hours, we discovered that there had been alerts. It comforts me in the idea that we were not told everything, that part of the information was withheld,” he laments.
Annoyed, senators Jean-François Husson and Claude Raynal launched an information mission on the deterioration of public finances. Three hours of standoff against the Minister of the Economy. Particularly on the confidential notes from Bercy.
“Why not have announced more frankly the elements available to you?” asks Senator Husson.
“My responsibility towards the French did not consist of sowing panic by indicating that the deficit would reach 5.7% of GDP, but of taking the necessary measures to contain the consequences of a 2023 deficit higher than what was planned”, replies Bruno Le Maire.
From the end of March 2024, the latter is in fact pleading for a amending finance law. A PLFR which would make it possible to correct the major balances of the budget. But with the European elections approaching, neither the Elysée nor the Prime Minister wish to impose restrictions on the French. The former Prime Minister, now MP, explains it: ”When we looked at the summary of this PLFR, it was essentially an increase in taxation. However, the choice that we have always favored is that of savings in expenses. One month after my appointment to Matignon, I issued a decree canceling ten billion euros of credit, something that had never been seen before.”
That won’t be enough. With the dissolution, then the legislative campaign, the economic recovery measures are put on hold, the deficit will exceed 6%.
The new Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, knows the situation perfectly: his chief of staff, Jérôme Fournel, held precisely the same position at Bruno Le Maire in Bercy.
The truth will emerge later.
Bruno Le MaireAt the Eye of the 20H
For his part, the former minister did not wish to meet us. We will settle for a cryptic SMS: “The truth will emerge later”.
Would he have any secrets to tell us?