The subject of immigration is no longer confined to the Gallic Quebec village. With the publication of a study by the National Bank on the concept of a “demographic trap”, English Canada and the Trudeau government are now joining the dance.
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However, the debate is off to a bad start. Here’s why. This study traces a link between the housing crisis and the major increase in newcomers to the country.
According to the BN, in 2023, they would have increased the population by 1.2 million inhabitants. Or five times more, proportionally, than the OECD average.
It is true that in Canada, the raised immigration targets deserve a calm debate, but making them the main fuel of the housing crisis holds less water.
The large arrival of immigrants, temporary workers and foreign students is certainly an aggravating factor in the crisis. According to several experts, this is nevertheless far from being the primary cause.
However, on a political level, targeting immigration as the driving force behind this crisis is very convenient. This allows municipalities and federal and provincial governments to absolve themselves of their own responsibility.
Over the years, all parties in power combined, their responsibility for the deterioration of access to housing is nevertheless very real. First of all, most of the country’s political class has long denied the very existence of a housing crisis.
Maddening proportions
Result: in the last ten years and until very recently, it has done very little to plug it before it took on the current frightening proportions.
This crisis is multifactorial. It’s certain. Upstream, its main cause nevertheless lies in the prolonged inaction of the political class and in its blind confidence in the so-called law of supply and demand.
The reality is that this crisis has been building for more than a decade. That is, well before the pandemic and the accelerated increase in the population.
Inflation and rising interest rates served as an accelerator, but the housing crisis was visible long before. As a political columnist, I no longer count my own texts on the subject in the last ten years.
For years, political inaction has cost tenants dearly. It even caused homelessness to explode and allowed the number of evictions to reach alarming proportions.
While rent prices were already rising too much, Quebec, among others, did not impose tight controls either. He refuses to create a register of leases and wants to deprive tenants of the right to transfer their lease at the same price.
Outdated political class
Until recently, most governments and cities also allowed Airbnb-type rentals to proliferate, which have vacuumed up the regular rental stock.
Some cities like Montreal are subject to bureaucratic hassles to the point of slowing down or preventing construction starts. And what about the outrageous delay in the construction of social and affordable housing across the country? Etc.
In short, if so many politicians are overwhelmed by the extent of the deterioration of the housing crisis, it is because they have already forgotten the devastating effect of their too long inertia and that of their predecessors.
So, be careful. Pointing to an easier target like immigration also risks fueling fear of immigrants in the country. While xenophobic parties are gaining ground in the West, let us at least remain factual.