If interest rates decrease from the summer of 2024, prices will rise by 5.5% in the country and by 5% for Greater Montreal, according to the real estate agency Royal LePage.
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According to Royal LePage’s market forecast, the price of a home in Canada is expected to increase by 5.5% year-over-year to reach a median price of $843,684 in the fourth quarter of 2024.
In the Greater Montreal region, the price of a house in the fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to increase by 5.0% compared to currently, to reach $610,260.
the median price of a detached single-family home should increase by 4.5%, to reach $684,998, while that of a condominium should increase by 6%, to reach $471,912.
It is during the second part of the year that property prices should experience the largest increases, according to Royal LePage. These forecasts are based on the assumption that the Bank of Canada will maintain rates during the first half of next year and begin easing them slightly in late summer or fall.
Elsewhere in the country, the agency forecasts increases of 8% in Calgary, 6% in Toronto and 3% in Vancouver by the end of 2024.
New reality
“The thing to remember is that the reduction in inflation close to the target rate will not have been enough to slow down the increase in real estate prices for long, due to lack of supply,” explains Dominic St-Pierre, vice-president. president and general manager, Royal LePage, Quebec region.
“Housing is an essential need and the still glaring lack of units to meet the growth in demand and population is doomed to continue,” he notes.
However, consumers will have to adapt to a new reality, he warns. The days of ultra-low rates are over, he says, which should contain rising prices.