Tensions in Gaza remain high as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu issues an ultimatum to Hamas regarding hostages, threatening to end the ceasefire if they are not released. Hamas has delayed further hostage releases, complicating peace negotiations. Trump’s demands for a swift resolution and Palestinian resettlement risk destabilizing the situation, drawing international criticism. Both Jordan and Egypt oppose these proposals, fearing internal instability. The potential for renewed conflict looms, impacting regional dynamics and U.S. influence in the Middle East.
Will the ceasefire in Gaza remain intact, or are we on the brink of renewed conflict? Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has issued an ultimatum to Hamas regarding the release of hostages. What are the implications of this situation?
Hamas’s Strategic Intentions
Hamas, the Islamist group, is determined to maintain its grip on power even after the catastrophic war in Gaza, which it ignited with its attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. The organization’s primary goal is to secure a permanent cessation of hostilities. The hostages they hold serve as crucial bargaining chips in this strategy.
Recently, however, Hamas has indefinitely postponed the release of additional hostages that were part of the ceasefire agreement. This move stalls negotiations for the next phase of the ceasefire, which aims to establish lasting peace. Analysts interpret this suspension as a tactic to strengthen Hamas’s position in future discussions.
Despite this, there are indications that Hamas might be open to negotiation. Renewed fighting would result in further devastation for the already suffering civilians in Gaza, many of whom have just returned to their ravaged neighborhoods in the north.
Hamas has announced an indefinite delay in the release of Israeli hostages that was initially scheduled for Saturday.
Israeli Objectives and Challenges
In a recent statement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued an ultimatum to Hamas: if the hostages are not released by Saturday noon, Israel will consider the ceasefire null and void. The military will then re-enter Gaza and intensify operations until Hamas is dismantled.
Israeli analyst Avi Melamed views this as a psychological battle between Israel and Hamas. Netanyahu may feel pressured by domestic political factors to resume military action against Hamas. Agreeing to a second phase of the ceasefire could jeopardize his right-wing coalition, which demands a continuation of hostilities.
However, a new election could prove disastrous for Netanyahu. He must avoid a coalition collapse, especially if public sentiment turns against him for the extended captivity of hostages, particularly following the distressing conditions of the last three hostages released. Many Israelis perceive that he has prioritized his political survival over the safety of the hostages.
Ultimately, Israel aims to achieve two conflicting objectives: the annihilation of Hamas and the liberation of the remaining hostages. The dire state of recently freed hostages and reports about their brutal treatment underscore the urgency of the situation. Israel estimates that of the 76 hostages still held by Hamas, only about 40 may still be alive.
Following the release of three hostages, Israeli forces have begun withdrawing from the Netzarim corridor.
Trump’s Influence and Its Consequences
Former US President Donald Trump’s demand for a swift release of hostages, coupled with his plan to resettle approximately two million Palestinians, threatens to destabilize the carefully negotiated agreements.
Trump has stated that if Hamas does not release all remaining 76 hostages by Saturday noon, he supports Israel’s decision to terminate the ceasefire, warning that “all hell will break loose.” He has also threatened financial repercussions for US allies Jordan and Egypt if they refuse to accept Palestinian refugees. However, the specific repercussions for Hamas remain ambiguous, as Trump asserted, “Hamas will find out what I mean.”
Hamas has outright rejected Trump’s demands. Spokesman Sami Abu Suhri stated that the ceasefire with Israel is the only viable path to ensuring the release of hostages, arguing that threats only complicate the situation further.
A journalist from Haaretz noted that Trump’s dramatic assertions could lead to either a breakthrough that facilitates the rapid release of all hostages or a scenario resulting in mass hostage casualties and a return to war.
German Chancellor Scholz criticized Trump’s approach, labeling it “scandalous,” while Union chancellor candidate Merz voiced similar concerns.
International Perspectives from Germany and the UN
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock cautioned against a potential end to the ceasefire, stating it is “hanging by a thread.” She called it irresponsible for Hamas to jeopardize the agreement and urged both the Israeli government and the US to take measures to advance to the next phase of negotiations aimed at achieving genuine peace.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has echoed these sentiments, urging Hamas to continue releasing hostages to avert further conflict. He emphasized that both parties must adhere to the ceasefire agreement and engage in serious discussions. The UN has condemned Trump’s renewed insistence that Palestinians leave Gaza as a violation of international law.
The proposal to resettle Palestinians from the Gaza Strip runs counter to established international legal principles.
Jordan and Egypt’s Stance on Palestinian Resettlement
It is highly unlikely that either Jordan or Egypt would acquiesce to Trump’s demands. According to Islamic scholar Simon Fuchs from the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, Trump’s propositions pose an existential threat to both nations’ governments.
For King Abdullah II of Jordan, the monarchy’s stability and the peace treaty with Israel are at stake. Nearly half of Jordan’s population has Palestinian ancestry, which creates significant internal tensions. The royal family has previously faced attempts at overthrow from Palestinian militants.
Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi fears that accepting a large influx of Palestinian refugees could empower extremists in the Sinai Peninsula, potentially threatening Israeli security. Given the dire economic conditions in Egypt, al-Sisi is likely also concerned about public sentiment turning against him.
Both Jordan and Egypt rely heavily on financial assistance from the United States, ranking among the top recipients of US aid.
Today, King Abdullah II of Jordan is scheduled to meet with US President Trump in Washington.
The Potential Regional Impact of Trump’s Demands
Scholar Simon Fuchs warns that Trump’s actions could further diminish US influence in the Middle East. Arab nations have become less dependent on the US since Trump’s first term, particularly with a decreased threat from Iran. Recently, Saudi Arabia and Iran, traditionally rivals for dominance in the Gulf region, have shown signs of rapprochement.
The proposed resettlement of Palestinians and Israel’s dismissal of a Palestinian state create unfavorable conditions for the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia that Trump is advocating for.
The idea of a Gaza Strip devoid of Palestinians, as suggested by Trump, sends shockwaves throughout the region.