A virulent critic of Israeli operations in Gaza, Sunni Turkey has remained very measured since the start of Israeli attacks in Lebanon against Shiite Hezbollah and the death of its first leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
For analysts interviewed by AFP, this unusual restraint betrays, behind caution, a discreet satisfaction at seeing Tehran and its auxiliaries weakened in the region.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is concerned to see “Lebanon and the Lebanese people targeted by the policy of genocide, occupation and invasion carried out by Israel since October 7”, date of the Hamas attack against southern Israel, had not a word about Hezbollah’s losses.
Only his Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan, revealing that he met Nasrallah shortly after the start of the war in Gaza, spoke of “a major figure for the region, especially Lebanon, whose void will be difficult to fill”.
Because Ankara does not forget the role played by the Lebanese Shiite militia and Iran in saving the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad nor the chaos that this war has created on its doorstep, throwing millions of refugees onto its soil.
This is even the reason why President Erdoğan is trying to reconnect with Bashar al-Assad.
“Turkey and Hezbollah are not on the same line regionally, especially in Syria, where the latter supported the regime and was complicit in Assad’s war crimes,” notes Özgür Ünlühisarcikli, from German Marshall Fund. “Even if opinions are divided in Turkey, the losses of Hezbollah are obviously less worrying than those of Hamas”, because the vast majority of Palestinians are Sunni Muslims like Erdoğan.
For Gönul Tol, director for Turkey of the Middle East Institute in Washington, “only a minority of Islamists” in Turkey regrets “the weakening of the axis of resistance” to Israel, promoted by Iran with its cronies in the region (Hezbollah, Shiite factions in Iraq and Houthis in Yemen), even if the majority of Turks are openly pro-Palestinian.
Although still difficult to measure, “the prolonged weakening of Iran and its Shiite allies would strengthen Turkey’s dominant position in at least two theaters, Iraq and Syria,” she continues.
“Sunni actor”
Because even if Erdoğan prefers to present himself as “leader of the Muslim world”, “since the war in Syria, Turkey has emerged as a de facto Sunni actor in the region”, with its 85 million inhabitants, facing Iran Shiite, she emphasizes again.
“The decapitation of Hezbollah leads to reducing the influence of Turkey’s main rival in the region, and it will not regret that,” confirms Asli Aydintasbas, Turkey specialist at the Brookings Institution.
“But Ankara is cautious in its actions and its words. Relations with Iran remain sensitive. And Turkey is visibly worried about a regional escalation and an all-out war between Iran and Israel from which it will do everything to stay away,” she adds.
For Sinan Ciddi, associate researcher at the Foundation for Democracy (FFD) in Washington, “Erdoğan is instead seeking a broader post-conflict coordination role in Gaza, for Turkey and Egypt, two Sunni states, like peace agreements.” security and for the reconstruction” of the Palestinian territory.
Hence the recent visit, at the beginning of September, of President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi to Ankara, he recalls, treated five years ago as a “tyrant” and “assassin” by the Turkish president.
NATO member Turkey has continued to condemn Israeli operations in Gaza launched in retaliation for the Hamas attack on October 7. It suspended trade with Israel and joined the proceedings for genocide against Israel initiated by South Africa before the International Court of Justice.