2024 - Here's how much Pierre-Luc Dubois would cost the Canadiens

In his end-of-season report, the general manager of the Canadian, Kent Hughes, did not hide that he was open to acquiring a player who could improve the team for several years. What if this athlete so eagerly awaited by fans was indeed Quebecer Pierre-Luc Dubois, whose name has been linked to Montreal for a while now?

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Last year, in an interview with TVA Sports, Pat Brisson, the agent of the Winnipeg Jets forward, pointed out that his client was interested in one day donning the tricolor jersey.

At 24, Dubois will become a restricted free agent at the end of the season and should be free as the air at the end of the 2023-2024 campaign.

Hughes also seems to have an interest in the young player, who would become the great French-speaking star of his organization. Last summer, a source close to the file had revealed to the Log that the GM of the Canadian had made a very interesting offer to the Jets during the 2022 draft.

But there is a but: in the same breath, in his press conference on Friday, the general manager added that if he was interested in obtaining a player capable of improving his young formation, it will be done “without hurting the future of the team.

If it reads being between the lines, it means “without sacrificing too many top draft picks or top prospects.”

A youngster and first choice?

And that’s exactly what a player like Dubois risks costing, as revealed by an exercise in which he lent himself The newspaper in the last few days, with the help of an NHL scout and the company SportLogiq, which specializes in analyzing circuit statistics.

“Is it worth it for the Canadiens to give a young player who is already playing with the team, and a pick, or even two first-round picks? Because that’s what he risks having to exchange to have it, ”raises the scout, who prefers that his identity be concealed.

This is a conclusion similar to that reached by SportLogiq by analyzing transactions involving players with a similar profile that have occurred in recent years.

Forwards who have proven to be very good additions for the teams that have acquired them, but who are not necessarily saviors, as the recruiter claims.

“Dubois is an excellent hockey player, he points out, but he’s not a concession player like Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews, for example.”

“In my eyes, he’s a second-line center,” he adds, specifying that the Quebecer “is not a natural scorer, but he has good hands, a good size and a good kick”.

“And at 24, he can still improve. The problem, in my opinion, is that the Canadiens don’t necessarily need another center player. It is rather in defense that the team should add experience in order to support the young players.

Now or later?

The other problem is that once the potentially costly transaction has been made, it will then be necessary to quickly grant a long contract to the native of Saint-Agathe-des-Monts, in the Laurentians.

A contract of several years … also expensive, as shown by the comparisons listed by SportLogiq.

This pact would force Hughes to do pirouettes with his payroll. The general manager of CH will undoubtedly leave heavy contracts from next July, including that of Jonathan Drouin.

But he still has to combine with those of Brendan Gallagher and Joel Armia, in particular, a legacy from the Marc Bergevin era.

In a context of reconstruction, why not wait for the next transaction deadline to carry out such a transaction instead?

Or, wait until Dubois also becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2024, to attract him to Montreal without having to sacrifice picks or players?

“Whether the transaction takes place at the next draft or at the next transaction deadline, the cost will be similar,” the recruiter believes. Unless, of course, Dubois’ stats are up sharply…or down sharply.”

Enough to continue to fuel the discussions for a few weeks. Or for a few months, depending on which route the Canadian prefers to take.

Quite similar exchanges

What could Pierre-Luc Dubois cost the Canadian, if Kent Hughes acquired the center player by way of transaction next June? To see more clearly, Sportlogiq, an expert in statistical analysis of the NHL, has compiled the exchanges that have taken place in recent years involving players with a profile similar to that of the Quebecer. Like Dubois, these three forwards were or were about to become restricted free agents when they put their names to the bottom of the pact. They were all traded during the draft or in the days leading up to it. One observation emerges from this analysis: in order to get your hands on a player of the striker’s caliber, it will cost at least a first-round choice and a high-level prospect.

ALEX DEBRINCAT

July 7, 2022 (shortly before the first round of the repechage)

Right winger, 24 years old at the time of the transaction
Had just had a season of 78 points in 82 games (41 goals, 37 assists)
Traded by the Blackhawks to the Senators for 2022 first- and second-round picks (which became Kevin Korchinski and Paul Ludwinski) and 2024 third-round picks

KEVIN FIALA

June 29, 2022 (9 days before draft)

Left winger, 26 years old at the time of the transaction
Had just had an 85-point season in 82 games (33 goals, 52 assists)
Traded by the Wild to the Kings for 2022 first-round pick (now Liam Ohgren) and prospect Brock Faber (2020 second-round defenseman)

SAM REINHART

July 24, 2021 (during the second day of the draft)

Center player, 25 years old at the time of the transaction
Had just had a 40-point season in 54 games (25 goals, 15 assists)
Traded by the Sabers to the Panthers for 2022 first-round pick (now Jiri Kulich) and prospect Devon Levi (2020 seventh-round goaltender)

Source: Data compiled by Sportlogiq for Le Journal

Contracts that could be compared

It’s one thing to acquire a player like Pierre-Luc Dubois, but it’s another to secure his services for several seasons. Again, Sportlogiq focused on contracts signed by center players with a profile similar to that of the Quebecer in terms of age and statistics. Again, one thing stands out: it will be expensive, and for a long time. With Nick Suzuki who is already under contract (a pact similar to the one that Dubois could touch, by the way), Cole Caufield who will no doubt soon be and other young players who will sign contract extensions in the coming seasons, the Canadian will have to make several calculations if he wants to keep the services of Dubois.

ROBERT THOMAS