It’s never two without three for President Xi Jinping, who is now strong as four.
Posted October 16
As part of the 20e Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which has just begun, he will obtain a third historic mandate. He will therefore remain at the head of the country for five more years. At least.
But if there’s one thing to take away from all these numbers, it’s that Xi Jinping is now, unquestionably, the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao.
He is also the commander-in-chief of a nation that is now close to the United States… and dreams of supplanting it.
This Chinese high mass and its fundamental legacy give us the opportunity to state what many have long hesitated to admit, out of naivety or willful blindness: China, with Xi Jinping at its head, wants to dominate the world.
What is special is that, like Western democracies, the Middle Kingdom is convinced of the superiority of its model. He, too, seeks to impose it.
We live in a new geopolitical era.
A new chapter in history has begun and it requires a stronger response than the nonchalance that has long been the norm in Western societies in the face of China’s rise and the uninhibited way in which it wields its power.
Canada, it should be remembered, has not yet unveiled its long-awaited Indo-Pacific policy. At the end of too painful a gestation, she should see the light of day in the coming months, they say in Ottawa.
This will be an important test for Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly. Lucidity and firmness, we hope, will be present.
Public servants shaping Canada’s future policy should take a look at the new US National Security Strategy, released on October 12.
China occupies a central place there, alongside Russia.
The diagnosis is correct. And the proposed treatment is appropriate.
Let’s tackle them in order.
It is recognized that the behavior of the two countries represents the main challenge for Washington (and therefore for Western democracies, the peace and stability of the international order as we know it today).
But we also admit that Russia is not China. The will to power may be the same, but the means of one and the other absolutely cannot be compared.
Russia is the nasty little boxer who takes on stronger Western democracies, while outside the ring is the Chinese rival who watches the fight unfold. This opponent is much bigger, stronger and more agile.
“Russia poses an immediate threat to the free and open international system, as it irresponsibly flouts the basic laws of international order, as its brutal war of aggression against Ukraine has demonstrated,” reads -on in the nearly 50-page document.
“The People’s Republic of China, by contrast, is the only contender that has both the desire to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to advance toward that goal. »
We then add some crucial details about Xi Jinping’s country and its ambitions.
We observe, for example, that China “frequently uses its economic power to subjugate countries” and “benefits from the opening of the international economy while limiting access to its internal market”.
In short, “it seeks to make the world more dependent on the People’s Republic of China while reducing its own dependence on the world”.
Former leader Deng Xiaoping said his country should “hide its talents and bide its time”. Xi Jinping seems convinced that this time has come. He wants to make China great again.
All that’s missing is a red cap on which he would have had Make China Great Again written.
How, then, to position oneself vis-à-vis this new China?
This is certainly the most important question in the short, medium and possibly long term in terms of international relations.
The answer is not simple. It imposes on the United States, Canada and their allies within the liberal democracies a delicate balancing act.
We must first face it, this China. Firmly. It does not hesitate to “carry out activities that are a direct threat to our national security and our sovereignty”, as the director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, David Vigneault, said last year. Bowing down is not an option.
But we must also, at the same time, try to cooperate with the Chinese dragon.
“We will always be ready to work with the People’s Republic of China when our interests are aligned. We cannot let the disagreements that divide us prevent us from moving forward on priorities that require us to work together, for the good of our peoples and the world,” said the administration of Joe Biden. We think, for example, of climate change and pandemic threats.
An iron fist in a velvet glove, of sorts.
A roadmap that has something to inspire Canada.
Hoping that the Chinese regime is also willing to cooperate. And that his will to power and his desire for revenge do not blind him to the real risks of a possible conflict with the West.