The element of surprise, the modus operandi, the capacity to last. Hamas’ attack on Israel is the result of a carefully coordinated and likely long-term operation, with accusations in the West pointing at Iran.
The surprise
The offensive was launched on Saturday, at dawn, in the middle of Shabbat, 50 years plus a day after the Yom Kippur War, a symbol that cannot be a coincidence.
“It’s a huge failure for Israel and a huge success for Hamas,” regrets Kobi Michael, researcher at the INSS think tank in Tel Aviv. ” We [n’]were [pas préparés] and again, I remain politically correct.”
The scale of the attack leaves no room for doubt: “To launch such an operation, you must have a lot of preparation, planning, coordination and you must have significant perspectives or objectives,” he says. .
Because “Hamas knows very well that the price of such an operation will be very high,” adds the expert.
The precedent of 2021
In May 2021, Hamas had already surprised Israel by sending thousands of rockets, sometimes a hundred in a few minutes, aimed at saturating its “Iron Dome” anti-missile defense system.
At the time, 4,360 rockets were used in 15 days, while around 3,000 fell on Israel in two days, according to Elliot Chapman, a Middle East expert for the British intelligence firm Janes.
If Hamas maintains this pace, “this would be the largest rocket attack on Israel so far,” he told AFP.
“Hamas should still have a substantial arsenal of rockets in reserve and it seems likely that it will be able to keep the fire going for a good while,” said Fabian Hinz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Varied arsenal
Hamas has an arsenal that is difficult to evaluate numerically, but certainly very rich. It would come from Iran, from Syria before the revolution, from post-Ghadafi Libya, but also from other countries in the Middle East, assures a Western arms expert who requests anonymity and appears on X (formerly Twitter ) under the pseudonym Caliber Obscura.
Its small weapons come from China or the former Soviet bloc, with “significant quantities stolen or seized during combat with the Israeli army,” he specifies, also mentioning drones and grenade launchers.
Most Hamas rockets, however, are locally manufactured, “unguided missile systems […] which do not require advanced technology” and are imprecise, explains Elliot Chapman.
The Palestinian movement could also imitate the Lebanese Hezbollah, which hides its forces until the moment to launch a major operation, observes Fabian Hinz. “We could see entirely new capabilities emerge in the event of a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip” by Israel.
Iran’s “paw”
“It is too early to say” whether Iran is “directly involved” in this offensive and the United States has “no indication” in this direction for the moment, declared the White House, adding however, have “no doubt” about the fact that Hamas was “financed, equipped and armed” among others by the Islamic Republic.
Tehran declared for its part “to support the self-defense of the Palestinian nation” and a military advisor to the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, welcomed the “proud” Hamas offensive.
“There have been transfers of weapons and know-how. There is clearly an Iranian leg which allows local manufacturing of missiles,” noted David Rigoulet-Roze, Middle East specialist at IRIS, on Saturday to France Info.
For Kobi Michael, “Hamas would not have dared to launch such an operation without having a serious insurance policy, and they get it from Hezbollah and Iran.”
Multiple front?
Tel Aviv has said it has feared an attack on several fronts for months. Fear reinforced since Hezbollah announced having fired “artillery shells and guided missiles” at the border between Lebanon and Israel.
A ground attack by the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip would promise deadly urban combat. “There are good reasons to think that the Israelis have been trying to avoid it for years,” judges Fabian Hinz, while Hamas “has had time to prepare for this kind of scenario.”
Other groups could also be tempted to intervene against Israel. There is the threat of greater involvement from Hezbollah, which “declared that they were working in full coordination with the Palestinian fighters”, underlines Elliot Chapman.
He said the group said “it would intervene if Israel launches an assault on the Gaza Strip, which seems likely at this stage.”