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The president of the next UN climate conference (COP28), Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, also runs an oil and gas company that will substantially increase its greenhouse gas emissions in the coming years, due to the expected increase in fossil fuel production.
The multinational Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), the main oil company in the United Arab Emirates, plans to increase its oil and gas production by 2030, according to a Global Witness analysis of public data. It should thus exploit 1.3 billion barrels of oil and 90 billion cubic feet of gas per year at the start of the next decade.
Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber is the president and CEO of ADNOC, a company which recently announced the completion of a new gas exploitation project intended in particular to increase exports of liquefied natural gas by ship.
The increase in production planned by the multinational means that annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels exploited by ADNOC will increase by more than 40% between 2023 and 2030, according to calculations by Global Witness . They will increase from 487 million tonnes to 684 million tonnes. These 684 million tonnes are equivalent to the annual emissions of 285 million cars.
Credibility
However, the countries which will meet at COP28 in Dubai at the end of the fall must in theory agree on the acceleration of the implementation of actions which will reduce global GHG emissions by at least 43 % by 2030, compared to the 2019 level. This objective is considered a strict minimum to hope to be able to limit warming to 1.5°C, as the signatory countries of the Paris Agreement have committed to in 2015.
In this context, “ADNOC goes squarely against our climate target,” according to Patrick Galey, spokesperson for Global Witness. The latter therefore calls into question the credibility of Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber as president of COP28.
“We recognize the climate imperative and welcome constructive dialogue towards practical solutions,” replied ADNOC, after the publication of the Global Witness analysis. But “inexact speculations” do not serve this objective, she added, criticizing the data put forward by the organization.
“Fantasy”
Last week, Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber said the rapid exit from fossil fuels was a “fantasy”, in a speech at the opening of Middle East and Africa Climate Week North. “We cannot unplug today’s energy system before building tomorrow’s system. It is simply neither practical nor possible,” he argued.
Over the past two years, Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber has also repeatedly called for continued investment in the fossil fuel sector, in order to guarantee global “energy security”. “The oil and gas industry will need to invest more than $600 billion each year through 2030, just to meet projected demand,” he said in 2021.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, of which the United Arab Emirates is a member, said last week that oil demand is expected to reach 116 million barrels per day by 2045, according to its baseline scenario, or 16.5%. more than in 2022. The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers also anticipates an increase in production and investments in the exploitation of oil and natural gas should total $40 billion this year in the country.
Consequences
Due to our dependence on fossil fuels, the year 2023 will be the hottest in human history, and the rate of warming is such that the objective of limiting it to 1.5°C could be out of reach. ‘reached in just over ten years, according to the European Copernicus Observatory.
Although climate change has not yet reached the dramatic thresholds predicted by science, the consequences are already very real, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Heat waves, heatwaves and droughts are almost certainly “more frequent and more intense” in most regions of the globe, as are intense precipitation events.
The year 2023, marked by an increase in extreme climatic events, already gives us a foretaste of the impacts to come due to the worsening of the climate crisis.