How many voters will go to the voting booths on April 10 and 24? After the record abstention rates in the municipal elections of 2020 then in the departmental and regional elections of 2021, observers fear that the presidential election will, in turn, be shunned by the French. Such a phenomenon would be new for the most popular ballot since the start of the Fifth Republic.
To assess the extent of this risk and its political stakes, franceinfo interviewed researchers in electoral sociology Vincent Tiberj and Tristan Haute, co-directors of the book Extinction of votes? (PUF editions). These two specialists confirm the threat of a lower turnout in the 2022 presidential election. They recall that abstention mainly affects the popular electorate. And especially that it risks making winners and losers. The National Rally and part of the left are the forces that have the most to fear from a low turnout.
Franceinfo: Are we heading for record abstention in the next presidential election?
Vincent Tiberj: Abstention is a complicated phenomenon. It can tend to increase or decrease, it depends on the stake. There is more and more a conjunctural dimension in the vote. However, the presidential election of 2022 seems less mobilizing than that of 2017, which had however already known a stronger abstention than in 2012.
“Last December, Ipsos measured an interest rate for the campaign at only 67%. For comparison, this indicator was at 81%, at the same period in 2016.”
Vincent Tiberjat franceinfo
Tristan High: This type of drop is never a good sign, but you should also be wary of these indicators. Abstention is a very difficult phenomenon to measure for pollsters. People who agree to respond to socio-political surveys are more interested than average in electoral campaigns. They therefore have a lower propensity to abstain.
Can the surprise be comparable to that of the last regional elections?
TV: The concern is also that many voters tend to hide their abstention when questioned. This is also how the pollsters explain that they were completely wrong in the last regional. There were then abstention records which had not been anticipated at all and we fear the same effect next April. However, the presidential election has so far always been an election that has been rather full of participation.
Does the presidential election attract more voters to the voting booths than other polls?
TV: Yes, when we look at the evolution of abstention in the various presidential elections, the line that emerges is more or less flat. The other elections, on the contrary, follow much more upward trends, interspersed with ups and downs depending on the stakes.
With the exception of the 2002 presidential election, which had a much lower turnout…
TV: You have to be reasonable. In 2002, the presidential election nevertheless remained much more mobilizing than the legislative elections which preceded it and which followed it, for example. In reality, in 2002, there was also a small holiday effect, particularly in Paris. Like what, participation can sometimes hold little. But, casually, when we look at the dates of the two presidential rounds of 2022, there could again be an impact.
What is the typical profile of an abstainer?
TH: The surveys on electoral participation carried out by INSEE, which compare voter turnout lists and census data, highlight certain characteristics. The typical abstainer is less educated than the population as a whole and belongs more to the popular categories, ie workers and unskilled employees. He will rather be in a precarious situation with repetitive, assembly-line work. Above all, he will be younger. In addition, there are also family factors, in particular being in a single-parent family or living in relative social isolation. All of these situations contribute to a much stronger abstention.
How do you explain that participation rates are lower among the popular electorate?
TH: There is a feeling of political illegitimacy in this more popular and less educated part of the population. This is an electorate that will not necessarily feel competent to participate in political life. There is also the feeling that the vote has a very limited impact for their own social situation. Finally, all this combines with the idea that it takes time to vote. The time to go to the polling stations on D-Day but also the time to take an interest in the electoral campaigns. But this time, these voters will not necessarily take it.
All French people are therefore not equal when it comes to voting?
TH: Social inequalities in participation are particularly present in less mobilizing elections, as was the case in the last departmental and regional elections. But they are, traditionally, all the same less important in the presidential election, because of the higher participation. However, that does not mean that they disappear and they can reappear in the event of a less mobilizing presidential election.
Your work also shows an increasingly strong difference in behavior between the generations…
TV: Yes. Beyond social factors, we see a strong generational impact. Abstention progresses as the post-baby boom generations arrive from the 1960s. This phenomenon is even stronger with the “millenials”, that is to say voters who have reached adulthood in the 2000s. The relationship to the vote of these generations is more and more intermittent. The latter do not systematically abstain. Their vote depends on the election, who is running and what is at stake. In contrast, voters born before the 1940s as well as “baby boomers” born just after the war still see voting as a duty. They tend to vote in all elections.
Do these inequalities favor certain political forces?
TV: Very clearly. This is what we saw at the last regionals. Voters aged over 65 weighed 1.5 times their demographic weight at the ballot box. While half of those under 35, of voting age, did not speak. However, the oldest generations are more inclined towards the traditional right. These voters instead voted for the Les Républicains party in the regional elections last June. It’s not something new. In 2017, François Fillon had his best results in this older population. Today, Valérie Pécresse, the candidate of the Republicans, also obtains her best scores of voting intentions in this electorate.
“The same for Eric Zemmour, who could be one of the big beneficiaries of a massive electoral demobilization next April.”
Vincent Tiberjat franceinfo
Conversely, who are the losers of abstention?
TV: Political parties that get a lot of votes among the working classes have the most to suffer from abstention. This is the case with the National Rally, but also with environmentalists and part of the left.
Are political leaders sufficiently aware of these issues?
TV: Until a certain point. We can see this clearly during election nights. First there are a few minutes of discussion on the level of abstention expected, then comes the time for duplexes from HQ, and then it’s time for analyzes like “the French thought that”, ” the French sanctioned the government” and so on. We are therefore clearly faced with a political system which deplores abstention on the one hand, but which, on the other hand, continues to function very well with relatively low participation rates. There was still a blank vote record in the second round of the 2017 presidential election. Did we talk about this record? Almost none.
Is the rise in abstention inevitable for democracies?
TV: No, it’s not a fatality. The 2020 presidential election in the United States saw record turnout. In Germany, there is relative stability. And the vote continues to progress in other countries, such as the Scandinavian states for example.
TH: Since the start of the pandemic, there has also been this idea that abstention records are the consequence of the health crisis. However, when we shift our gaze, it appears that other countries have also experienced a decline in participation over the past two years, but rarely as massive as in France.
Can measures be taken to stop the rise in abstention?
TV: In France we have a particular conception of democracy. It is considered “a chosen thing”, reserved for grown-ups, who would be the only ones able to represent us. However, we realize by looking at what is done elsewhere, that voters move when they are given voice and space. For example around referendums on issues such as abortion or the minimum wage, or even authorizing voting from the age of 16 to allow high school students to become politicized.
TH: We do not think enough about our modes of representation. Often, the responses to the increase in abstention consist above all in seeking technical solutions, such as proxy or Internet voting. One can wonder if these alternatives are not overvalued, because the remobilizations that they can lead to are often marginal. And they will especially benefit people who are already predisposed to participate and therefore contribute to increasing inequalities in voting.