Today is World Population Day, and it is also the day the biennial report is released. World Population Prospects from the UN, the reference report on demographic projections.
The verdict: Overall, the world population growth rate is declining, but the situation varies greatly between regions. Indeed, some are experiencing a population explosion while others, such as Japan and Quebec, are facing an aging population. However, reading certain media reports, one would think that a decline in the world population growth rate and apocalyptic fantasies go hand in hand: humanity is on the brink of extinction, a catastrophic societal collapse is on the horizon, the failure of pension systems is assured, entire populations are threatened with extinction, etc.
We will therefore not be surprised by the resurgence of pronatalist discourse – the encouragement or coercion to have more children -, once again in the spotlight in certain circles, sometimes even at the highest level. It is enough to recall here the martial call of the French president, Macron, for a “demographic rearmament”, nothing less.
Yet after centuries of population and economic growth, there would be many reasons to celebrate rather than lament the slowdown in the rate of population growth.
First of all, let’s note that despite the slowdown in the growth rate, the world population is projected to continue to increase over the next few decades, from 8.2 billion to 10.3 billion by the mid-2080s. That’s an increase of 2.1 billion, roughly comparable to the entire world population in 1950, which was 2.5 billion. So we’re a long way from civilizational collapse.
Second, while it is true that in some regions the ageing of the population presents a new challenge, it is not clear why this should be seen as insurmountable. It is true that the old-age dependency ratio, which measures the share of people of working age who have to support the elderly, is changing and is placing an increasing burden on health and social security systems. However, we have tools to address these kinds of challenges, including the reallocation of resources, the redistribution of income and a reassessment of our pension systems.
This is not about ignoring the challenges of population aging, but rather about tackling them directly, rationally and with the awareness that they can also be opportunities to make changes to improve the well-being of all, such as combating the social isolation of seniors, a major problem in Canada. In other words, developing the necessary measures to respond to population aging is within our reach.
On the other hand, it is much less clear that we have the capacity to address the problems created and exacerbated by population growth. As mentioned above, some regions will continue to experience significant population growth. However, the links between population growth and environmental crises are known and real: depletion of natural resources, crises of access to water, food insecurity, reduction of biodiversity, and, of course, contribution to climate change. Population growth is indeed one of the main drivers of environmental degradation and greenhouse gas emissions linked to the use of fossil fuels and food production.
That is why in a recent alarming, alarming statement that the planet has moved to climate code red, more than 11,000 scientists recommended that, among other measures to mitigate the worst effects of climate change, we stabilize and reduce the world population, and do so within a framework that respects human rights, by removing barriers to family planning and achieving gender equity and universal access to education.
Despite this, warnings about population growth are often marginalized, perceived as alarmist, coercive, or even racist. These perceptions are wrong. For example, a recent study of sub-Saharan African prospects for population growth found that the issue was a major concern among this group. Population growth is seen as a danger to environmental sustainability, economic and social goals, and regional peace and security.
Let’s be clear: population growth and decline are not two sides of the same coin. The negative consequences of continued growth are out of all proportion to the challenges associated with population decline.
Population dynamics are fundamental to maintaining a healthy environment. In this context, slowing population growth represents an opportunity. Reproductive autonomy, the ability to make one’s own choices about reproduction, is central to seizing this opportunity. Prioritizing investments in voluntary family planning can better ensure that individuals have choices about when and how often to have children. These programs not only improve reproductive health and rights, but also promote gender equity, reduce unplanned pregnancies, and contribute to slowing population growth.
It is imperative for a sustainable future for all to recognize that demography and reproductive rights are inseparable from environmental issues.