Global challenges in 2022

The year 2022 promises to be exceptional in international relations. Here are 12 issues to watch out for.

1. The Beijing Olympics and propaganda

Will the Winter Games be postponed due to the pandemic? The population has nothing to say in this choice (unlike the Tokyo Games). Chinese propaganda around the Games promises to be spectacular. Will it help China or harm it?

2. Xi Jinping’s consolidation in power

Will Xi Jinping remain in power? Will he just have to lead from behind the scenes? No one seems in the race to succeed him. But a surprise remains possible.

3. The French elections

What place will the identity right manage to conquer? This right is divided, which increases the chances of Emmanuel Macron. If Macron were re-elected, his new presidency could be very different from the first, given his experience.

4. Taiwan

The brutal manner in which Beijing has intervened in Hong Kong and, above all, the weak response from democracies do not bode well for Taiwan.

5. Brazil and the elections

Polls predict that Jair Bolsonaro will lose the 2022 elections to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. However, Bolsonaro, who is politically close to Donald Trump, could attempt a coup. Fortunately, his chances seem slim.

6. The midterm elections in the United States

Republicans are expected to win a majority in both chambers. Republican elected officials are likely to attempt to impeach Biden, if only to establish a false equivalence between him and Donald Trump.

7. COVID-19

How will the Omicron variant wave end? Are we doomed to suffer more waves of COVID? If so, with what effects on the economy? How far is it still possible to increase the debt?

8. Iran and the atomic bomb

There are only a few weeks left to salvage a deal with Iran. But even if an agreement were reached, would it suit the Israeli government? It is permissible to doubt it.

9. Lebanon

Lebanon continues to collapse. Its leaders, divided, often incompetent and corrupt, are incapable of solving the country’s problems. Anger is brewing, especially against Hezbollah.

10. The environment

Global warming continues. Therefore, natural disasters are expected to increase in number and intensity.

11. Sub-Saharan Africa and the jihadists

Despite military victories, the French-led coalition in sub-Saharan Africa is losing ground in people’s hearts. It is easy for jihadists, especially thanks to social networks and religious proximity, to manipulate poorly educated populations. Islamism continues to spread.

12. Ukraine and Russia

In theory, no one has an interest in a war raging between Ukraine and Russia. But Vladimir Putin is taking advantage of the weakness of the United States to consolidate his influence on Russia’s European borders, which is worrying.