global carbon emissions will increase 4.9% in 2021 and approach pre-Covid-19 levels

Global carbon emissions will rebound in 2021 and approach the levels reached before the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the 16th study of the Global Carbon Project, published Thursday, November 4, while the COP26, world climate summit, has been taking place since Sunday in Glasgow (Scotland, United Kingdom). A 4.9% increase in these emissions is expected. However, they had fallen by 5.4% in 2020 with the various global confinements. With this increase, emissions will therefore total 36.4 billion tonnes.

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According to the study by the GCP, which is a partner of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), the use of coal and gas is expected to increase more in 2021 than it did in 2020. That of petroleum will, meanwhile, remain below 2019 levels. “Rapid rebound in emissions as economies recover from pandemic reinforces need for immediate global action on climate change, explains in a press release Pierre Friedlingstein, of the Global Systems Institute of Exeter (United Kingdom), who led the study. The rebound in global CO2 emissions of fossil origin in 2021 reflects a return to the pre-Covid fossil economy. “

The Covid-19 was therefore not a break in the upward trajectory of carbon emissions, just a parenthesis. China, the United States, Europe and India, which are the top four polluters, have all steered their emissions upwards. For Europe and the United States, it is almost damped by the decline in 2020. But for China, which did not reduce during the Covid, it is an upward curve. And for India, it is a real leap with 12% increase, which places it almost at the same level as Europe.

“Investments in the green economy provided for in some countries’ post-Covid stimulus plans have so far been insufficient on their own to avoid a near substantial return to pre-Covid emissions.” According to the Global Carbon Project, to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, global emissions must be reduced by around 1.4 billion tonnes each year. “The comparison with the decline of 1.9 billion tonnes in 2020 highlights the scale of the action that is now needed, and therefore the importance of the discussions at COP26”, concludes Pierre Friedlingtein.