Recent debates on border control and immigration in Germany have gained traction, particularly following a tragic incident involving a rejected asylum seeker. CDU leader Friedrich Merz has shifted towards advocating stricter asylum policies, reflecting growing public support for reducing refugee numbers. While polls show a slight decline for the Union party, a significant majority of Germans favor permanent border controls and rejecting individuals without valid entry documents. However, dissatisfaction with the government’s immigration management remains widespread.
Border Control and Public Sentiment on Immigration
The recent discussions surrounding permanent border controls and immigration policies have sparked significant interest among the German populace. CDU leader Friedrich Merz appears to have garnered considerable support for his stance on these issues, according to recent surveys. However, it’s crucial to note that these sentiments were gathered prior to the pivotal Bundestag vote that took place on Wednesday.
Shifts in Public Opinion Amidst Tragic Events
For a considerable period, Merz’s campaign strategy seemed focused on avoiding missteps, particularly as his party led in the polls. This approach shifted dramatically following a tragic incident in Aschaffenburg, where a two-year-old child and a man tragically lost their lives due to the actions of a rejected asylum seeker from Afghanistan. This situation has prompted Merz to advocate for a more stringent asylum policy, which some interpret as a significant pivot in his approach.
As the Bundestag election approaches in just over three weeks, questions arise regarding the potential impact of this evolving narrative. A recent ARD-DeutschlandTrend survey, conducted by infratest dimap, reflects the current public mood but cannot predict electoral outcomes. Notably, the survey revealed a modest increase in satisfaction with Merz’s performance, rising to 28 percent, with three-quarters of CDU supporters expressing approval.
In the broader political landscape, Merz’s approval ratings are closely aligned with those of other prominent figures, such as Robert Habeck from the Greens and Olaf Scholz of the SPD. However, it is striking that none of the leading candidates have garnered more satisfied than dissatisfied voters before this election, a first in the history of the ARD-DeutschlandTrend.
Polls indicate a slight decline for the Union party, now at 30 percent, while the AfD maintains a steady 20 percent. The Greens and SPD are in a close contest, each securing 15 percent. The Left Party has recently reached the five percent threshold, while the newly formed alliance led by Sahra Wagenknecht remains at four percent, along with the FDP.
As the debate around immigration intensifies, it remains uncertain how it will affect public opinion and party standings in the upcoming elections. However, a significant portion of the population supports Merz’s immigration reduction agenda, with 68 percent advocating for fewer refugees. This sentiment has grown steadily over the last decade.
Merz is expected to introduce the ‘Immigration Limitation Act’ draft in the Bundestag soon, with keen attention on whether he can secure the necessary majorities. Recently, the Union managed to pass a resolution proposal with narrow support, reflecting public backing for permanent border controls and stricter immigration policies. Notably, 67 percent of Germans support making existing temporary border controls permanent.
Support for rejecting individuals without valid entry documents at borders is also prevalent, with 57 percent in favor of this approach, although opposition exists primarily among Greens and Left Party supporters. Interestingly, despite the strong support for stricter measures, only a third of Germans believe a national solution to asylum policy is sensible, with many favoring a European approach instead.
Overall, there is a prevailing sentiment that the government is struggling to effectively manage immigration control, with five out of six Germans expressing dissatisfaction with the state’s performance in this area. The perception of declining control over immigration has remained, despite recent measures aimed at strengthening border security.
This developing situation will continue to unfold, and its implications for Germany’s political landscape will be the focus of ongoing discussions in the media.