It is against a backdrop of renewed tensions between China and the United States that the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, began a tour of Asian countries on Monday. A likely visit to Taiwan could sour superpower relations.
The Congress delegation led by Mr.me Pelosi will visit Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, and Japan, with the goal of promoting and strengthening common U.S. values and interests with its Asian partners.
The elected Democrat casts doubt on whether to visit Taiwan or not, arousing the irritation of the Xi regime. United States President Joe Biden is walking on eggshells. He acknowledged that the military advised against the visit, but he refrained from lobbying Nancy Pelosi directly out of respect for the independence of Congress. Washington expects Mme Pelosi meets Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen on Wednesday.
This visit is disturbing enough to have been the subject of a marathon call last Thursday between President Biden and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. The latter warned Washington that those who play with fire will perish by fire.
China, which views Taiwan as an ununified part of its territory, has promised “firm and forceful” countermeasures to preserve its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Experts speculate on the nature of this response, but they agree that Beijing will not risk a direct military confrontation with the United States.
That’s all the world, in the throes of an unprecedented war in Ukraine, needed: an increase in tensions between two superpowers that will necessarily have to find ways through to maintain peace and stability in the world. China and the United States are both interdependent in economic and commercial matters, and competitors in the great game of geostrategic influence.
Since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, the Xi regime has been more aggressive in its efforts to undermine the reputation of the United States as an agent of stability in Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world. China’s unconditional support for Russia, despite the atrocities committed by the Russian military in the war in Ukraine, is in itself indicative of China’s attitude.
In the magazine Foreign Affairs, authors Bonny Lin and Jude Blanchette report on Beijing’s fears of a schism between democratic nations and authoritarian regimes like China and Russia. The strengthening of NATO, in support of Ukraine, is seen as a prelude to a reconfiguration of military, economic and technological alliances between the United States and the countries of Asia-Pacific. The island of Taiwan, in addition to its strategic geographical position in the China Sea, is also the world’s leading producer of cutting-edge semiconductors without which our connected objects and our digital world would fall apart.
As things stand, the chances of a de-escalation are slim. Nancy Pelosi, a fierce defender of human rights in China throughout her career, will not want to back down. Washington will not want to give the impression that China is now dictating, under threat, the nature and extent of the relationship the United States can have with democratic regimes in Asia-Pacific.
For his part, President Xi, who promised the reunification of Taiwan without specifying the timetable, will not want to lose face as the Chinese Communist Party Congress approaches, during which he expects to win a third term. five years as general secretary. This would be a precedent in the Chinese communist regime, in which leaders are chosen for only two five-year terms. His handling of COVID-19 as well as his great tolerance for the butchery of Vladimir Putin in Ukraine would earn him immense criticism if the people still had the ability to express themselves freely.
In the short term, it is almost certain that this visit will lead to reprisals and an increase in tensions. In the medium term, let us hope that the leaders of the world rediscover the meaning of our common purpose. Skirmishes, wars and conflicts across the globe feel like deja vu. UN Secretary General António Guterres sounded the alarm on Monday at the opening of a conference bringing together the 191 countries that have signed the treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. Humanity is only “one misunderstanding away from nuclear annihilation”, he warned. From Ukraine to Taiwan, let’s hope that the reasoned voices of diplomacy and dialogue can be heard. In the absence of utopian peace in the world, can we at least hope that the political leaders will contribute to the easing of tensions?