from the rise of opposition to the future of Erdogan, the questions that arise after the election

The near-final results of Sunday’s Turkish municipal elections give the opposition CHP party well ahead of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP. What does this result change in the Turkish political landscape?

In Turkey, the political opposition signs its most resounding victory in almost 50 years, according to some observers. Monday, April 1, the quasi-final results of the municipal elections reveal that the social-democrat CHP (Republican People’s Party), founded by Atatürk, largely won against the AKP (Justice and Development Party), the very conservative formation of current president Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Four years before the presidential elections in Turkey, this large victory of the CHP completely reshuffles the cards of the political landscape in the country.

What does this result change within Turkish municipalities?

The CHP now has free rein in its two main strongholds: Istanbul and Ankara. In Istanbul, outgoing mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was comfortably re-elected on Sunday March 31 by winning 26 of the city’s 39 districts, compared to 14 during his first election in 2019. He therefore now has a majority in the Municipal Council. “Istanbul sent a historic message to the highest level of the state, he said on Sunday evening. Istanbul said: ‘I am on the side of democracy, on the side of justice.'” In the capital Ankara, outgoing CHP mayor Mansur Yavas won 16 of the 25 districts, including Keçiören, the second most populous in the city which had been led by the AKP and its Islamist predecessors since 1994.

In addition to confirming its control over cities already acquired, the CHP also made a spectacular breakthrough in Anatolia, capturing cities held for a long time by the AKP such as Bursa, a large industrial city in the North-West, Zonguldak on the Black Sea or Adiyaman, a town in the South-East hard hit by the earthquake last February. The AKP candidates, however, held their ground in several large cities in Anatolia such as Konya, Kayseri or Erzurum, and in the Black Sea such as Rize and Trabzon, strongholds of the Turkish president.

Is Ekrem Imamoglu Erdogan’s new rival?

For many observers, the path of the very popular mayor of Istanbul is now all traced towards the 2028 presidential election. Unknown to the general public at the time, Ekrem Imamoglu had already shaken up the Turkish political landscape by being elected head of the country’s largest city in 2019, thus ending 25 years of AKP domination over Istanbul. Five years after his first election, Imamoglu therefore repeats the feat with even greater success in a city that Erdogan, who was mayor in the 1990s, had nevertheless sworn to take back. The symbol is strong. “There was already talk that Imamoglu would be a candidate for the opposition coalition in the presidential elections of May 2023, explains Ahmet Insel, economist, political scientist and former professor at Galatasaray University. To prevent this, the government undertook a judicial investigation into insulting Recep Tayyip Erdogan.”

“Imamoglu had already emerged as a potential opposition figure during the last presidential elections.”

Ahmet Insel, economist and political scientist

at franceinfo

But beyond this personal victory, it is also a historic breakthrough for the CHP which becomes the first party in the country ahead of the AKP, “a first since 1977” according to Ahmet Insel. Among Turkey’s 30 metropolises, the Social Democratic Party now controls 14, the richest and most populous. For its part, the AKP only retains its strongholds in the center and east of the country, much smaller population areas. Less than a year after the presidential defeat of its candidate Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, the CHP has regained color. And, it seems, a new figurehead.

What is Erdogan’s future after this heavy defeat?

It is the worst defeat for the AKP, the presidential party, since it came to power in 2002. But it is also, according to Ahmet Insel, “a serious slap” for Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself. Because the Turkish president was very involved in these elections, holding daily meetings and enjoying unlimited air time on public television while his opponents were almost deprived of it. The CHP’s victory is therefore a scathing disavowal for Erdogan, especially since among the districts won by Imamoglu in Istanbul is that of Üsküdar, the same one where the head of state resides and voted on Sunday. “Erdogan has always been involved in municipal and legislative campaigns and that is the problem, analyzes Ahmet Insel. In doing so, he somewhat emptied his own party of its substance. Potential candidates and founding figures have all left the AKP.”

“Tayyip Erdogan has personalized his party too much, and today, when he is not himself a candidate for an election, the AKP is unable to mobilize the electorate.”

Ahmet Insel, economist and political scientist

at franceinfo

The future is getting even darker for the current president as a new force has appeared to his right: the Islamists of Yeniden Refah, who denounce the maintenance of commercial relations between Turkey and Israel, in the midst of war in the Strip. from Gaza. Yeniden Refah established himself as the third force in this election by winning 6.2% of the votes, according to the almost final results. In this context, certain relatives of the re-elected mayors in Istanbul and Ankara do not rule out asking for early elections. Sunday evening, faced with his supporters who were demanding Erdogan’s resignation, Ekrem Imamoglu did not want to take this path.