French legislatures | Leading in the first round, the RN hopes for a historic victory

(Paris) The far right “on the threshold of power”: largely leading the first round of historic legislative elections on Sunday, the National Rally has asked the French to give it an absolute majority in the second round and hopes to govern for the first time since the Second World War.

While the traditional “republican front” against the RN appears much less systematic than in the past, the party of Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen is able to obtain a strong relative majority or even an absolute majority next Sunday.

But the scenario of a blocked National Assembly, without any possible majority alliances between the three blocs present, also remains a possibility.

With 33.2-33.5% of the vote, the RN and its allies obtained their best score in the first round of a vote, according to estimates from the Ipsos and Ifop institutes.

They are ahead of the New Popular Front uniting the left, which obtained 28.1-28.5%, far ahead of Emmanuel Macron’s camp at 21-22.1%, which will see its number of deputies considerably reduced, sealing the failure of the bet of the head of state who dissolved the National Assembly.

The Republicans, who did not form an alliance with the RN, stood at around 10% in this vote marked by a sharp increase in participation.

“We need an absolute majority,” declared Marine Le Pen, elected MP in Hénin-Beaumont in the first round, like at least 39 other RN candidates.

“Respectful” but “uncompromising”

Smooth-faced and embodying a de-demonized Le Pen party, Jordan Bardella, who aspires to enter Matignon at only 28 years old, has promised to be “a prime minister of cohabitation, respectful of the Constitution and the function of the President of the Republic, but uncompromising” on his government project.

This would be an unprecedented cohabitation between Emmanuel Macron, a pro-European president, and a government much more hostile to the European Union, which could cause sparks to fly between the two heads of the executive in matters of diplomacy and defense.

The dissolution announced by the head of state on the evening of the rout of his candidates in the European elections of June 9 should, in any case, profoundly shake up the political landscape.

Campaigning on purchasing power and against immigration, the RN came out on top in the first round despite the vagueness over the repeal of Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform, the controversies over dual nationals, or sulfurous comments from some of its candidates.

“The far right is on the verge of power,” warned Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, himself in the lead in Hauts-de-Seine, calling for “preventing the National Rally from having an absolute majority.”

” Neither nor ” ?

Much will depend on withdrawals and voting instructions in each constituency. Before these crucial decisions, a record number of potential three-way contests are expected, potentially involving some 300 of the 577 seats at stake, as well as a handful of four-way contests.

Because a new week of campaigning begins on Monday morning, with intense negotiations in view of the second round.

“Faced with the National Rally, the time has come for a broad, clearly democratic and republican gathering for the second round,” Emmanuel Macron said in a written statement.

For the Élysée and most of the tenors of its camp, this gathering must exclude the candidates of La France insoumise, or a certain number of them.

Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe even considered that “no vote” should “be cast for the candidates of the National Rally, nor for those of France Insoumise”.

Some Macronist voices, including those of Minister Roland Lescure, however, rose to “block the extreme right” including, if necessary, by voting for an LFI candidate… Which augurs a case-by-case strategy in the Macronist ranks.

Unemployment insurance on pause

In difficulty, Gabriel Attal immediately put his controversial reform of unemployment insurance on hold.

On the left, there is consensus on the call for a blockade against the RN. The leader of LFI Jean-Luc Mélenchon announced the withdrawal of his candidates who came third when the RN is in the lead, while the boss of the Ecologists Marine Tondelier pleaded for the “construction of a new republican front”.

Having managed to overcome deep divergences, the left has slightly improved its 2022 score, but does not seem able to significantly increase its troops, according to initial projections.

The main leaders of the left met in the evening in front of a compact crowd of thousands of people for a united rally against the far right on the Place de la République in Paris.

The left-wing coalition won “a good twenty constituencies” on Sunday, assured LFI coordinator Manuel Bompard. Re-elected in the first round in Seine-et-Marne, the boss of the socialists Olivier Faure castigated the “confused” message of the macronie in view of the second round.

Around a hundred organizations, including associations and unions, also called to vote against the RN.

LR for its part refused to give voting instructions.

Roussel beaten

Some leading figures were eliminated on Sunday, such as the leader of the communists, Fabien Roussel.

Among the 24 ministers in the running, Sabrina Agresti-Roubache, who came third in Marseille, announced her withdrawal against the RN. Gérald Darmanin is in the lead in the North ahead of the RN, but not by much.

Several figures from national politics had thrown themselves into the battle, such as former President François Hollande in Corrèze (leading in the first round in Corrèze) or one of the leading figures of the right, Laurent Wauquiez (leading in Haute-Loire).

Former head of government Elisabeth Borne is second behind the far-right party in Calvados, but will benefit from the withdrawal of the left, which came third.

Conversely, François Ruffin, a free electron of the left, in the same situation in the Somme, will benefit from the withdrawal of the Macronist candidate.

Participation was at least 65% of registered voters, according to polling institutes. This is well above the 47.51% of 2022, but below the 67.9% of the last legislative elections organized after a dissolution, in 1997.

“Finding serenity”

Overseas, the outgoing deputies of the centrist Liot group or invested by the NFP are in the lead in Guadeloupe and Guyana. In Polynesia, the autonomist candidate Moerani Frébault was elected in the first round.

In the polling stations, many voters expressed their excitement during the day for these early elections.

“I would like to regain some serenity because since the European elections, everything has taken on a worrying scale. But we must continue to fight for what we believe,” Roxane Lebrun, 40, in Bordeaux, told AFP. In Rennes as in Lyon, many stores in the city center protected their windows for fear of excesses after the announcement of the results.