The Press : No absolute majority, three equal blocs, a delicate coalition in sight. Did Emmanuel Macron get what he wanted by calling elections?
Olivier Ihl: I think the result is not quite what he expected. He underestimated the ability of the left to unite very quickly in this coalition. On the other hand, he very well anticipated the strength of the “republican front” which was literally deadly for the candidates of the National Rally (RN). They lost almost all their duels.
Jean Petaux: If his bet was to blow up the system to reap the dividends, he failed. Very clearly. Before the dissolution, his majority was 250 seats, whereas today, his camp has 160, in the best case scenario. But if he wanted to blow up the system without worrying about what comes next, I think he rather won.
Semi-victory, then?
OI: He comes out personally weakened. But the political parties that make up the central bloc [dont son parti Renaissance] retain their importance, even a decisive role. They have retreated, but less strongly than we thought. We will not be able to do without them if we hope to govern. The central bloc remains the point of gravity of politics in France.
JP: Macron did not make a fool of himself in this affair. The fact that his coalition managed to come second and overtook the RN is a result that is very unexpected compared to the projections. But he is still affected. He is a bit of a victim of Monty Python syndrome. He is like the knight in the film Holy Grail, who no longer has arms or legs, but who continues to fight…
Some accuse him of creating a “real mess” in the National Assembly.
OI: I would say that from now on, in the absence of a political force that can govern on its own, we will have to enter another universe of parliamentary practice. The parties of the left, the centre and the right will be obliged to work together. They will be obliged to do as in 23 other European countries, that is to say, form a coalition with a government programme. Parties that do not have the same ideas will have to work together. This did not exist under the Fifth Republic.e Republic.
JP: Since I have been following French politics, I have never seen such fragmentation of the National Assembly. Because now, you have three roughly equal blocs that share about 90% of the seats in the assembly, with 12 possible parliamentary groups. There is enough material to form a majority, but it will be a carp and a rabbit making babies. That said, it will not necessarily be a combative cohabitation. It would be a parliamentary majority that would be gaseous, fluid…
What influence will Emmanuel Macron retain over this possible coalition government?
OI: It is true that this is the end of this vertical, personal, Gaullist reading of power. From this point of view, it is the end of Macronism. Here, it is Parliament that is regaining the upper hand, that is to say that it is its program that will prevail, the one that will result from the negotiations between the Socialist Party, the Ecologists, the center, perhaps part of the Republican party. The Élysée will have to implement it. That said, it retains a fair amount of power. If it does not agree with a law, it can request a second reading. It can discuss the priorities that are set by the government. It remains head of the armed forces. It is he who keeps control of all defense policy…
Will he have more influence if the Macronist bloc forms the basis of this possible coalition?
OI: Yes, of course. But be careful, because the parties that make up the Ensemble group, namely Renaissance, Horizon [d’Édouard Philippe] or MoDem [Mouvement démocrate de François Bayrou]are parties dominated by leaders who are already thinking about the 2027 presidential election. These people will make a point of showing their independence, their autonomy. We can already see that Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe have turned the page on Macron. They are thinking about the next move that will come in two and a half years.
What next for the President of the Republic?
JP: At the limit, he should now stick to the strict application of the Constitution: the president presides and the government governs. He should stop meddling in everything and let the country be governed by the future prime minister and the parliamentary majority that will succeed in forming. Macron is leaving for Washington this week for the 75th anniversary of NATO. We can imagine that he will ask Prime Minister Gabriel Attal [qui a offert sa démission dimanche] to stay at Matignon to deal with current affairs until after the Olympic Games sequence, then let Parliament structure itself into a majority. The new majority will propose a name for Prime Minister who will be likely to garner a parliamentary majority. But we risk having a good laugh, because the French absolutely do not know how to negotiate…