French Legislative Elections | Historic Second Round Begins, Far Right Favorite

(Paris) Will the “republican front” formed to counter the extreme right work? The French began to give their answer on Saturday, in the overseas territories and in America, for a weekend of legislative elections with historic stakes.

In Saint Pierre and Miquelon, the small North Atlantic community where voters cast their ballots first, as in Guadeloupe in the Antilles, turnout at midday was stable compared to the first round and higher than at the same time in the 2022 legislative elections.

In the Antilles archipelago, participation at 12 noon was 14.48%, compared to 13.23% in the previous election and 14.31% last week.

French Guiana is an exception, with the second round not attracting crowds: barely 10.8% participation at noon (11 a.m. Eastern time), compared to 16.1% in the first round and 13.14% in 2022.

The French living on the American continent have also started voting. Voters in Polynesia and New Caledonia will follow in the evening. The French in mainland France and other overseas territories will vote on Sunday.

At the national level, rarely have legislative elections unleashed so many passions, aroused the anxiety of some or the hope of those who, by voting for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party, want to give the far right the possibility of governing.

A far-right government in France would be a first since World War II.

A few hours before the end of the electoral campaign on Friday at midnight and the start of a reserve period, several polls seemed to show a tightening between the three blocs: on the far right the RN and its allies, on the left the New Popular Front (NFP) alliance, and on the centre right the supporters of President Emmanuel Macron.

In the National Assembly that will emerge from the polls on Sunday, the extreme right and its allies would not have an absolute majority, according to the latest opinion polls. They would even be quite far from it, with 170 to 210 seats, for an absolute majority set at 289 deputies. They would be closely followed by the NFP (155 to 185 seats) and by the Macronists (95 to 125 seats).

” Unique part ”

For Marine Le Pen, if the latest polls are confirmed, it would be the triumph of a “single party” of “those who want to retain power against the will of the people.”

In the hours following the first round, more than 200 candidates from the left and center withdrew. And dozens of three-way races, which seemed favorable to the RN, turned into much more uncertain duels.

A supporter of the union on the left despite his opposition to La France insoumise (LFI, radical left), MEP Raphaël Glucksmann, former head of the socialist list for the European elections, warned against a demobilisation of voters and stated that the possibility of an absolute majority for the extreme right could not be ruled out.

“Contrary to the little music that is being played, it is not at all guaranteed at the time we speak,” he declared on Friday evening.

“Today the danger is a majority dominated by the extreme right and that would be a catastrophic project,” warned Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, head of the Macronist campaign, on the public channel France 2 on Friday evening.

If the RN were to cross the threshold of 289 elected representatives or come close to it, it would be Jordan Bardella, 28, who would enter Matignon, strong from his victory in the European elections of June 9, which had pushed Emmanuel Macron to dissolve the National Assembly.

He would become the youngest prime minister in history and implement the anti-immigration agenda his party has advocated for decades.

But if the left and the Macronists were to succeed, with their republican front, in defeating the RN, they would have to offer the French a solution for governing the country.

“The carp and the rabbit”

The idea of ​​a broad coalition bringing together part of the left, the central bloc and the right hostile to an agreement with the RN has therefore emerged. But on what program could this alliance described by the political scientist as being “a mix of carp and rabbit” agree?

“The French can impose a Republican coalition at the ballot box on Sunday,” said a close friend of Emmanuel Macron on Friday.

Gabriel Attal said Friday that his government could ensure the continuity of the state “as long as necessary,” that is, deal with current affairs while waiting for a new government to be formed. The question is all the more relevant since Paris will host the Olympic Games from July 26 to August 11.

Tradition dictates that the government presents its resignation after legislative elections. Gabriel Attal has announced that he will speak on Sunday evening about his intentions.

The end of the campaign, in a climate of great tension, was marked by attacks and violence against candidates and activists. Faced with possible excesses on Sunday evening, 30,000 police officers will be mobilized, including 5,000 in Paris.

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