Jesperi Kotkaniemi was scratched from the Hurricanes’ lineup Thursday night, his first since arriving in Carolina two and a half years ago.
The Canadian’s first choice, third overall, in 2018, had started the season strong, with twelve points in his first twelve games, after an encouraging season of 43 points at the center of the second line last year, but the Coach Rod Brind’Amour demoted him to the fourth line sometime in December after an ugly streak of two assists in twenty games. He rarely played more than eleven minutes per game since.
Kotkaniemi’s entry onto the scene in Montreal in 2018 did not suggest such a decline, at the dawn of his 24th birthday.
To everyone’s surprise, Kotkaniemi earned a position a few months after being drafted third overall by the Canadian in June 2018. However, he was one of the youngest players in this vintage, having celebrated his 18th birthday in July.
Not only did he maintain his place, but he managed to do so in a context where this surprising team was fighting for a place in the playoffs.
Unless your name is Crosby, Bedard or McDavid, getting 34 points in 79 games in your first NHL season at 18 is still worthy of mention.
The first overall pick in 2019, Jack Hughes had 21 in 61 games in his first season. Another first overall pick, in 2020, Alexis Lafrenière, had 21 in 56 games. Taken over a season of 82 games, that’s 28 points for Hughes and 30 for Lafrenière, who on the other hand played his first season at age 19 due to his birthday in October.
In 2018-19, Kotkaniemi finished just three points behind second overall pick Andrei Svechnikov, now an undisputed star in Carolina.
If we compare their first season in the National Hockey League, Kotkaniemi has eclipsed Juraj Slafkovsky. The Slovak drafted first overall in 2022 had 10 points in 39 games, just 21 points over an 82-game season.
But where Svechnikov and Slafkovsky took off, in their second season, Kotkaniemi took a nosedive. Only eight points in 36 games, a dismissal to Laval in the second half of the season and questions about his hard work in training. There was talk of a session where he refused to work overtime to improve his success rate during faceoffs.
His year ended before the pandemic arrived, with a spleen injury in the American League. When activities returned that summer, the organization would have been disappointed by its training in the preceding months. He nevertheless scored important goals in the playoffs.
His third season was hardly more conclusive with 20 points in 56 games, the same balance problems on skates, but he redeemed himself in the playoffs, with five goals, including the winning goal in overtime in game 6 against Toronto.
The Carolina Hurricanes, a authority in talent scouting and development, took the chance to make him a solid future center by presenting him with a hostile offer of 6.1 million for one year.
General manager Marc Bergevin, after thinking about it for a week, preferred to receive a first round pick (27e) and third round (92e) in 2022. A lower price for the Hurricanes than that paid by Kent Hughes for Alex Newhook (31e and 37e choice in 2023).
The Hurricanes seemed to have won their bet last year, after offering him an eight-year contract extension at an annual salary of 4.8 million.
At the center of the second line for one of the best clubs in the NHL, Kotkaniemi amassed 43 points, including 18 goals. We were still far from conferring him the status of a leading player, but such production for a young 22-year-old center was not an ordinary achievement. His start to the season in 2023 seemed to confirm an ascent. The fall, in April, is now brutal.
The mistake, for Marc Bergevin, was to use the first round pick in 2022 to panic-acquire Christian Dvorak from the Arizona Coyotes to compensate for the simultaneous loss of Kotkaniemi and Phillip Danault.
Dvorak, now 28, has been plagued by injuries every season since his arrival. He remains at best a third-line center, paid 4.5 million annually, and an unrestricted free agent in July 2025.
The CH also gave up its second round choice in 2024 to obtain it. This choice is located at 38e rank at present. Montreal therefore paid more for Dvorak than the Hurricanes for Kotkaniemi.
Dvorak is expected to return to action soon. We’ll see if Kent Hughes can get something for himself between now and next year’s trade deadline, but given his injury history, production and salary, it’s doubtful.
The Canadian recovered with a surprising choice, Alexander Romanov at 38e rank of the second round. Romanov will have made it possible to acquire Kirby Dach. Jesse Ylönen and Jordan Harris, drafted in the second and third rounds, are with the Canadian, but in supporting roles. Ylönen may be playing his last games in the organization.
With a third overall pick, three second-round picks and two third-round picks, this is a disappointing vintage for the Canadian in the end.
Quinn Hughes would have been an extraordinary choice for the Canadian. Behind the scenes, Trevor Timmins worried he was vulnerable defensively. After seasons of 68 and 76 points, Hughes, a 5-foot-10 left-handed defenseman drafted seventh overall by Vancouver, has 86 so far. With a record of… +39. The Norris Trophy is within his reach.
Part of the blame falls on the Canadian in this matter. Also part of the Hurricanes. But we often fail to give some accountability to the principal concerned. It should be done in this case.
The rebirth of Armia
Few would have bet on a season of 16 goals in 59 games from Joel Armia after his demotion to the American League, at age 30, before the start of the season. This shy striker, yet blessed with an advantageous physique at 6 feet 3 inches and 216 pounds, used the services of a psychologist to treat his breakdowns in confidence.
To everyone’s surprise, he found himself third among the team’s scorers, on an equal footing with Juraj Slafkovsky, but having played sixteen fewer games and without participating in the numerical superiorities. This is a career high for him.
This would be a 22-goal season prorated against an 82-game schedule. With two goals on Thursday, he had his fifth goal in his last five games. Beyond the goals, he plays an essential role on the numerical penalty and gives wings to second center Alex Newhook, 16 points in his last 23 games.
Unsurprisingly, Joel Armia will be the Canadian’s candidate for the Bill Masterton Trophy awarded to the player who has demonstrated the most perseverance, sportsmanship and commitment to hockey.
Colleague Simon-Olivier Lorange tells us more here.