Poor Mike Grier. We praised the work of his counterpart Brad McCrimmon, of the Vegas Golden Knights, for the acquisition of Tomas Hertl, but not a word about his own.
In a context of reconstruction, he nevertheless managed to get rid of a 30-year-old player under contract for another six years, and his annual salary of 6.75 million, with a complete no-trade clause, while receiving a 2025 first-round pick and prospect drafted at 32e ranked last year, center David Edstrom.
Hertl remains a quality center. Big size, 6 feet 3 inches and 215 pounds, an average production of 67 points per season for six years. On the way to a 58-point season this winter.
The Sharks won’t be competitive for at least three or four years. Hertl will celebrate his 31st birthday in November. He would have been 35 by the time San Jose was yearning for better days. We wasted, and would have wasted, four years of talent and money (he was making $8.1 million annually in San Jose, courtesy of Grier’s predecessor Doug Wilson, but the Sharks will absorb 17% of Hertl’s salary).
* All salary information comes from capfriendly.com.
Mike Grier inherited an organization on the rocks when he was hired in July 2022. The Sharks had just missed the playoffs three years in a row and lost their 2020 first pick, third overall, to get Erik Karlsson. San Jose was stocked with overpaid fading stars for many more years. In short, the Sharks looked like what the Pittsburgh Penguins will look like two years from now.
Could the Sharks GM have been more patient in the Brent Burns case, instead of settling for a modest third-round pick from the Carolina Hurricanes in July 2022? Probably. Grier had just arrived in office, Burns was 37 years old, had already begun his decline, although a 54 point season was nothing disastrous, but the prospect of registering 8 million per year on the payroll for another three years did not please the Sharks.
Grier got back on track well with Erik Karlsson. He took advantage of an unexpected 101-point production from his 33-year-old defenseman last year, and a desperate club, to get the Penguins their first-round pick in 2024.
The Penguins’ pick sits ninth overall right now. GM Kyle Dubas, however, has a protection clause and could keep this choice if he is among the top ten in 2024 and give up next year’s choice.
Will Pittsburgh be superior in 2024-2025? Dubas needs to do a lot of introspection. If he keeps his choice of top 10, he no longer has a protective net for next year. The Sharks could even get their hands on the first overall pick if the Penguins collapse into the cellar of the rankings!
The trade of Timo Meier to the New Jersey Devils in February 2023 was initially criticized, but looks better today. Meier was the Sharks’ leading scorer at the time of the trade, but he was turning 27 in October and was a year and a few months away from full free agency. The Sharks were obviously not going to offer him a contract extension in a rebuilding context.
Grier got the Devils’ 2023 first-round pick, 21-year-old prospect, defenseman Shakir Mukhamadulin, drafted at 20e rank in 2020, and 23-year-old striker Fabian Zetterlund.
The Sharks drafted winger Quentin Musty at 26e rank. This 6-foot-2, 200-pound young man, still 18 years old, is once again making a splash in the Ontario Junior League with 87 points, including 35 goals, in just 47 games in Sudbury. His detractors criticize him for a lack of intensity/attention to defensive detail at times, let’s see how he progresses in this area.
Mukhamadulin, 22 years old in January, continues his apprenticeship in the American League. The 6-foot-4, 185-pound defenseman has 27 points in 47 games so far in the minors and was given a brief three-game recall in January, where he took the opportunity to get his first point.
Zetterlund surprises. He spent the majority of the season on the top line and is on his way to a 39-point season, including 21 goals.
Meier signed an eight-year contract extension for 70 million in June, an annual salary of 8.8 million on payroll. Meier has 34 points, including 18 goals, in 51 games this season, a -23 record, the worst after that of rookie Luke Hughes, after a disappointing end to the season last year.
However, things could change with the firing of Lindy Ruff. Meier has six points in three games since Ruff left last week and saw his minutes increase under Travis Green.
The Sharks drafted center Will Smith fourth overall in 2023, ahead of David Reinbacher. In his first season in the NCAA, at just 18 years old, Smith had a mind-blowing 57 points in just 34 games at Boston College, along with his former American Development Program teammates, Gabriel Perreault and Ryan Leonard. He has five points more than Cutter Gauthier, the fifth overall pick in 2022, recently traded to Anaheim.
The seventh overall pick of 2021, 21-year-old William Eklund, is now anchored in the center of the Sharks’ second line. He has 11 points in his last 14 games, after collecting 19 in his first 47.
In the draft last year, they traded 11e overall pick to the Arizona Coyotes to get the 27e34e and 45e choice. The Coyotes drafted Conor Geekie, the Sharks centers Filip Bystedt and Cam Lund, and defenseman Mattias Havelid. Bystedt and Havelid continue their progress in Sweden, Lund has almost a point per game in his second season at Northeastern, in the NCAA.
The Sharks are tied for last in the NHL with the Chicago Blackhawks, but have played two more games. They will draft in the top four, with a 13.5% chance of winning the lottery and getting their hands on the gifted Macklin Celebrini. This rate will increase to 25% if the Blackhawks beat them.
San Jose will have a second first-round pick if the Penguins trade theirs, two first-round picks in 2025 with the one obtained from the Golden Knights for Hertl and a second-round pick from the Devils in 2025 in the transaction for Meier. They gave up two third-round picks to Vegas, in 2025 and 2027 in the trade for Meier.
Rebuilds never guarantee favorable results, but the Sharks’ rebuild is well underway under the circumstances.
The Golden Knights and draft picks
PHOTO DAVID BECKER, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Vegas has proven in recent seasons that they can maintain a level of excellence by sacrificing draft picks and prospects. Why change a winning formula? To obtain Tomas Hertl and two free agent rental players without compensation at the end of the season, Noah Hanifin and Anthony Mantha, they therefore gave up two first round picks, in 2025 and 2026, their prospect drafted in the first round in 2023, David Edstrom, two second-round picks, in 2024 and 2025, fourth and fifth round picks and defenseman Daniil Miromanov.
The Golden Knights will probably not be able to keep Hanifin with the arrival of Hertl and his annual salary approaching 7 million, unless they succeed in another spectacular gymnastics exercise in terms of salary.
But with a Stanley Cup in 2023, final fours in 2020 and 2021, a final in 2018, who can doubt their strategy?