“The wise man learns from his mistakes, the wiser man learns from the mistakes of others.” — Confucius
THE Interviews of the venerable Chinese master with his disciples are clearly not part of the reading list of Prime Minister François Legault, who does not seem to learn from either.
The “calculated risk” that his government took with the Northvolt project is very reminiscent of that of the Couillard government, which had sunk $1.3 billion into Bombardier’s CSeries, before seeing Airbus seize it for the symbolic sum of $1.
Mr. Legault was at a loss for words at the time to denounce Liberal amateurism and he had promised not to put in a penny more if he took power. In 2022, his government had to authorize a new injection of $380 million, to which $413 million was added last July, in what became the A220 program, in the hope that Quebec would recover part of its investment when Airbus bought back its stake in 2035.
If learning from the mistakes of others requires greater wisdom, as Confucius said, it is probably because human beings tend to think of themselves as more astute than others, a pretension that is particularly widespread in the political world.
The Legault government argues that, unlike its predecessor, it took the precaution of proceeding in stages in the case of Northvolt. It would certainly have been the height of imprudence to pay out all at once the $2.9 billion that Quebec’s participation could ultimately total, but more than $700 million has already been paid, and an additional $300 million will follow as soon as construction of the plant begins, even if it is never completed.
Meanwhile, Minister François-Philippe Champagne is repeating to anyone who will listen that the federal government has not yet paid anything and that it would therefore lose nothing if the project were abandoned. From there to saying that Ottawa acted in a much wiser manner is only one step.
Of course, nothing ventured, nothing gained, and history does not always repeat itself. However, what we hear these days about Northvolt, whether here or from Sweden, is not reassuring.
It is legitimate to want to make Quebec a leader in the battery industry as we wanted to do in aeronautics, but thinking too big, too quickly, is rarely the recipe for success.
The CSeries saga had caused a lot of damage to the Liberals by seriously tarnishing the image of expertise in economic development that they had carefully cultivated for decades. The collapse of a company as emblematic as Bombardier had shocked Quebecers.
Despite this humiliation, Mr. Couillard had at least been able to argue that “Quebec genius could fly anywhere in the world,” even if it was under the colours of Airbus, and that aircraft would be assembled in Mirabel. The consolation was small, but there would be absolutely nothing to argue in the event of Northvolt’s failure.
Learning from one’s mistakes requires a lesser degree of wisdom, according to Confucius. Even if this learning is slower for some, it was reasonable to believe that Mr. Legault had learned the lessons of his 2021 experience and understood that it was not in his interest to commit himself to Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives.
A week after the outcry caused by his call to overthrow the Trudeau government, he tried to put the toothpaste back in the tube, but the damage was done, everyone having clearly seen where he was.
During the 2021 federal campaign, Conservative leader Erin O’Toole’s positions may have lacked solidity and clarity, but he appeared significantly more moderate than his successor, much too much so for the taste of Conservative activists, who were quick to show him the door.
Accusing the Prime Minister of having transformed himself into a Conservative “super volunteer,” Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois began to describe what a Poilievre government would look like, from a party in which a third of MPs are opposed to abortion rights, which wants to build a new pipeline in Quebec, which would refuse to finance the tramway in Quebec, which would abolish the carbon tax, etc.
François Legault can criticize Justin Trudeau for many things, including his insensitivity to Quebec’s demands regarding immigration, but Pierre Poilievre has not promised anything either.
“The honorable man seeks error in himself. In others, he seeks virtue,” Confucius also said.