France | Is the first turn “folded”?

(Paris) It’s not a suspense, although… While the French are voting this Sunday in the first round of the presidential election, most commentators agree that the “match is over”, in short that the result is just a formality.

Jean-Christophe Laurence
The Press

With 26% of the voting intentions*, Emmanuel Macron should not have too much difficulty passing this first round. Ditto for Marine Le Pen, who is trailing him at 22%. The gap between the two candidates is narrowing a little more each day, to the point that we now wonder if the boss of the National Rally could not win in the second round, scheduled for April 24.

Macron has seen a dramatic rise in the polls in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine due to his relentless diplomatic offensives with Vladimir Putin. We saw him as the only one capable of shining in the event of an international crisis. His victory seemed assured, to the point that the campaign lost interest.

But since the “flag effect” faded, the outgoing president has only lost points.

It must be said that he declared his candidacy late and that his campaign never really got off the ground, due to lack of time and a “visionary” program, according to some.

Macron also gave only one public rally and refused to participate in a televised debate, a strategy of withdrawal that was roundly criticized by his opponents and reduced in substance a campaign already devastated by the war in Ukraine. .

In short, he is criticized for sitting on his achievements, playing it safe.

Nothing to help: a senatorial commission of inquiry revealed in mid-March that the government had had regular and expensive recourse to private consulting firms (nearly 900 million euros in 2021), a “case” which has quite obstructed the Macronian campaign.

Operation demonization

Conversely, the Marine Le Pen dynamic continues to progress, thanks to a sustained field campaign and a successful de-demonization operation. The former “bad guy” has become the candidate of the little people, and too bad if that is accompanied by an anti-immigration policy drawing on xenophobia.

“She takes advantage of the comparison with Éric Zemmour, who speaks even more to the right, sums up Caroline Vigoureux, political journalist at opinion. She herself smoothed her speech a lot. She returned to measures that were divisive, such as the exit from the euro. And then she ran a good campaign in the field, coherent, constant, in which she talks a lot about purchasing power, which is a real concern in the electorate. »

Caroline Vigoureux, however, is careful not to trumpet that this first round is won in advance. If everything indicates that we are indeed heading for a second round Macron-Le Pen as in 2017, nothing excludes a last minute twist.

The surprise, in this case, could be called Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The candidate of La France insoumise (radical left) has seen his curve rise at a regular rate for two weeks, and is only five points behind Marine Le Pen. He could beat it to the post if the left-wing electorate, so far very divided, opted for the useful vote and decided to join forces to block the far right.

A possible scenario, but “unlikely”, nuance Bruno Cautrès, researcher at the CNRS and teacher at Sciences Po in Paris, evoking too great a gap between the two candidates. “Mélenchon benefits from an upward curve,” he said. But Marine Le Pen too. So it maintains its lead, which is still quite significant. »

Polls

Of course, polls can be wrong. We know it since Trump and Brexit. But at this point? Bruno Cautrès in doubt. “It would be such a huge crash that it’s not possible,” he said.

It will be necessary to see, moreover, what role will play the rate of abstention, evaluated by most polls at 30%, which would constitute a record for a presidential election.

Other surprises are also possible in the rest of the peloton. Will Éric Zemmour end his slide on a comeback? Will the right-wing candidate Valérie Pécresse exceed the psychological threshold of 10%? Will the socialist Anne Hidalgo shave the daisies or the bitumen? Will the ineffable Jean Lassalle have more votes than “likes” on TikTok?

Answer after the polls close Monday, at 7 p.m. Paris time.

* Odoxa poll, April 7