The Minister of Ecological Transition, Christophe Béchu, boasts of an “unprecedented method” to participate in the development of the new national plan.
How can France deal with global warming? The government put online, Tuesday, May 23, a consultation on the reference warming trajectory for adaptation to climate change (Tracc). Based on three questions, the executive asks those who wish to send their contributions to a dedicated email address until “mid-September”. Franceinfo returns to this device, presented by the executive as a “new method”.
1 What is the reference warming trajectory?
Global warming, linked to human activities, is not inevitable. Solutions exist to limit it, to stop it. While waiting for large-scale measures to be taken on a global scale to reverse the trend, some countries are choosing to adapt. The question is then to know what is the intensity of climate change that we will have to face. This is the whole point of the reference warming trajectory.
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Two scenarios were stopped. As suggested by the Minister for Ecological Transition, Christophe Béchu, in January, a hypothesis adopted by the executive foresees a global warming of the planet of 2°C by 2100 (3°C for mainland France, the warming being more intense on the land surface). The second scenario is +3°C on the scale of the Earth, or +4°C for mainland France, at the same time.
The first diagram corresponds to the objective set in the Paris agreement. But it seems almost out of reach already, according to some climatologists. This assumption “voluntarist”according to Christophe Béchu, however remains on the table since it is the real goal to be achieved, the most ambitious.
The other hypothesis, that at +4°C, is “more realistic than pessimistic”, notes Christophe Béchu. This scenario is similar to that adopted by Germany or the Netherlands, countries that also have a plan to adapt to global warming, he underlines. The National Council for Ecological Transition, on which sit NGOs, elected officials and local authorities, issued a unanimous favorable opinion to retain this reference trajectory of +4°C.
In reality, other more pessimistic scenarios exist by 2100, as pointed out on the set of “Télématin” Lola Vallejo, director of the climate program at the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (Iddri).
“We haven’t gone beyond [de +4°C] because I start from the principle that we have to listen to the experts and the sciencehighlights Christophe Béchu. Today, the experts are not saying that we are going towards a world of 6 degrees or 8 degrees, they are saying that we are going towards a world of +3°C. And so, there are consequences for us at +4°C.”
2 What are the questions asked for the consultation?
The Ministry of Ecological Transition submits three questions on its site, and provides a 31-page document (in PDF) summarizing the latest scientific elements to shed light on the situation. The first question is general: “Should France adopt a reference warming trajectory by the end of the century in order to be able to adapt, while continuing to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions in line with the objectives of the Paris Agreement?
The second question concerns more specifically the global warming scenarios adopted: “What do you think of a reference warming trajectory for the adaptation of France (Tracc) whose reference warming levels would be: +2°C in 2030, +2.7°C in 2050 and +4 °C in 2100 (metropolitan France)?”
The third question concerns concrete actions: “What tools and what technical and financial support should be made available to communities, economic actors and the public so that they can take into account the impacts envisaged in the future of global warming?”
3 How to participate?
If you wish to take part in the consultation, you can send your contribution until “mid-September” to the e-mail address [email protected]. If you prefer envelopes and paper, you can send your mail by post (National observatory on the effects of global warming; Contribution to the consultation on TRACC; Directorate General for Energy and Climate; Tour Sequoia 1 place Carpeaux 92055 Paris La Defense Cedex).
The Ministry of Ecological Transition assures franceinfo that all contributions will be read. At this stage, he is unable to specify how many people will be dedicated to this work. As for the length of the contributions, no recommendation is given.
4 What will this operation be used for?
This consultation on the Tracc should be used to develop, in part, the new national plan for adaptation to climate change (Pnacc). The third part of this plan must be finalized by the end of the year, according to the Minister for Ecological Transition. After a first which covered the period 2011-2015, the second extended from 2018 to 2022.
The initiative should make it possible, the minister hopes, to“accelerate awareness” of global warming and its consequences. If the consultation aims to “to reach as many French people as possible”he acknowledges, however, that it “will first concern decision-makers, economic actors, local communities”. Above all, it must facilitate the “topic rise” actors are expecting adaptation measures or are concerned about.
“It is a question of ensuring, thanks to this consultation, that there is no blind spot in the national adaptation plan that we have started to build and that we will make public in the second half of the year.”
Christophe Béchu, Minister of Ecological Transitionduring a press briefing
After a sequence of several months dominated by pension reform, the government intends to put ecological planning back at the top of the list of priorities. The ecological transition is “one of the pillars of my government’s roadmap”reaffirmed, Monday, the Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne.