Will Ukrainian cereals (finally) be able to feed the world? Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement on Friday, July 22 to allow the export of these foodstuffs, blocked since the start of the war. But the bombings that took place on Saturday July 23 on the port of Odessa, in Ukraine, cast doubt on the application of this agreement.
1What does this agreement contain?
The main measure of this agreement is the establishment of “safe corridors” in order to allow the circulation in the Black Sea of merchant ships. Moscow and Kyiv are committed to “do not attack” vessels carrying grain for the duration of the agreement, ie 120 days. The UN has clarified that “Ukrainian pilots” would pave the way for cargo ships in territorial waters, after Russian demands to clear the Black Sea of mines laid by the Ukrainians to protect their coasts were rejected.
In return, the Kremlin asked “enable markets to receive additional volumes of fertilizers and cereals” Russians, whose export was hampered by Western sanctions. Another Russian requirement is that cargo ships heading to and from Ukraine will be inspected at Istanbul ports to prevent Ukrainians from using them to import weapons.
2How was this deal made?
This agreement, the result of long negotiations under the supervision of the United Nations, materialized on Friday July 22 at the Dolmabahçe Palace in Istanbul. Ukraine and Russia initialed two identical but separate texts at the request of the Ukrainians who refused to sign with the Russians. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterresas well as the Turkish President Erdogan were present around the table during the signing.
This agreement must now be “fully implemented”, pointed out Antonio Guterresjust like the head of diplomacy of the European Union, Josep Borrel. For his part, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ensured that the conditions are met for its application “in the next few days”. However, kyiv was suspicious. “Ukraine does not trust Russia. I don’t think anyone has reason to trust Russia.”underlined the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kouleba.
3What could this agreement change for grain exports around the world?
The agreement should allow the export of between 20 and 25 million tonnes of grain blocked in Ukraine, while a new harvest is approaching. The steps Russians and Ukrainians jointly represent 30% of the world wheat trade. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia thus led to a surge in the price of cereals and oils, hitting hard the African continent which is very dependent on these countries for its supply.
The African Union has therefore “congratulated” of the agreement signed between Russia and Ukraine to unblock grain exports. This is a “welcome development” for the continent which faces an increased risk of famine, while the Horn of Africa (Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti) is experiencing its worst drought in 40 years. The International NGO Rescue Committee (IRC) also greeted on Friday a “first step towards alleviating the global food crisis”.
4Is the agreement (already) compromised by the Russian strikes?
Russian missiles hit the port of Odessa on Saturday, July 23, where Ukrainian grain for export is processed, Ukrainian air force spokesman Yuri Ignat told AFP. “The port of Odessa was shelled, especially where the shipping processes (of grain) were taking place. We shot down two missiles, and two more missiles hit port infrastructure where obviously there was grain.” he added.
“It took less than 24 hours for the Russian Federation to call into question, with missile attacks on the territory of the port of Odessa, the agreements and the promises it made to the UN and Turkey in the document signed yesterday in Istanbul”said Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko. A position shared by Josep Borrel : “Hitting a crucial grain export target one day after the signing of the Istanbul Accords is particularly reprehensible and once again demonstrates Russia’s utter disregard for international law and commitments”writes the head of diplomacy of the European Union on Twitter.