Sunday April 2, Finland goes to the polls for legislative elections. Its young Prime Minister Sanna Marin has become a household name abroad. But she is in a delicate situation 48 hours before the ballot.
Sanna Marin is 37 years old. She was, not long ago, the youngest head of government in the world. She is part of this wave of leaders who have breathed new life into politics, in northern and eastern Europe: the Estonian Kaja Kallas, the Slovak Suzana Caputova, the Danish Mette Frederiksen. Let’s add the New Zealander Jacinda Ardern, who threw in the towel in January.
Marin, with her determined face and her undeniable charisma, has become one of the figures of European commitment alongside Ukraine. Finland, 5.5 million inhabitants, looks at Russia with concern, a consequence of history and geography: 1,300 km of common border. The Social Democratic Prime Minister, now highly respected abroad, carried out your country’s NATO membership application. The application process is complete, membership is imminent.
If Sanna Marin has acquired worldwide notoriety, it is also through its naturalness and its modernity. With in particular, last summer, this video which went around the world on social networks, where we saw her partying with friends. Strongly taken to task after the broadcast of these images, she had presented a moving public apology with these words: “I’m human, I’m like everyone else, I need to have fun”. In any case, this is the first time that a Finnish leader has acquired such notoriety on the international scene.
A divisive personality and rising debt
And yet, it can therefore lose on Sunday for reasons of form and reasons of substance. On the form, Sanna Marin is a very divisive personality: she has her absolute fans, almost like a rock star. But her style also arouses irritation within a conservative Finland which looks at her with a touch of sexism, like an inveterate party girl, an inclination incompatible with the function. Basically, his opponents on the right and the far right accuse him of having increased the debt and consequently of jeopardizing the Finnish social protection model. And it’s true, the debt has increased during his tenure, due to the fight against the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. His opponents also attack him on immigration, brandishing a scarecrow, neighboring Sweden, where violent settling of accounts is frequent between gangs of immigrant origin.
Three parties in a pocket handkerchief
Everything will be played out in a pocket handkerchief. According to the latest polls, the three main parties are neck and neck, less than a point apart between the three. All are a little below 20%: first, the National Coalition (center right), then the Party of Finns (the far right, climate skeptic and in favor of leaving Europe) and only third are the social- Democrats of Sanna Marin. However, the practice in Finland is for the formation of the government to be entrusted to the party that comes first, even if the margin is narrow. Then charge the leader in question to form a coalition.
Even if Sanna Marin managed to win in extremis, she would probably have trouble drawing up a government contract. Conversely, the centre-right seems the best equipped to form a coalition. As for a victory for the extreme right, it would constitute a new electric shock for the European Union, after the success of Giorgia Meloni in Italy and the recent extremist upsurge in Sweden.