As the noose tightens on the Ukrainian army in the Donbass, Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz initiated a telephone interview with Vladimir Putin on Saturday. Three months after the start of the war, the three Heads of State spoke in particular of the smoldering world food crisis. The Russian president said he was ready “to find options for unfettered export of grain”but Ukrainian wheat no longer leaves the Black Sea ports.“We are on a real blackmail” of Russia, estimates Sunday, May 29 on franceinfo Michel Portier, director of Agritel, analysis and consulting firm, specializing in agricultural and agro-industrial markets.
franceinfo: Ukraine and Russia represent a third of world wheat exports. Can we do without for a year? Or is there no choice?
Michael Porter: No, we can’t do without, both Russia and Ukraine. For Ukraine, we are trying to find ways to export other than by the Black Sea, but with a lot of logistical difficulties, whether by train or truck. We go through Poland or Romania and the maximum grain or agricultural products that we could export is about 2 million tonnes per month when normally we export 6 or 7 million, so we would have way a deficit of 4 million tonnes.
Russia is still 35 to 40 million tonnes of exportable wheat this year, for the next campaign. We can not do without.
Michael Porterat franceinfo
Russia, anyway, is choosing to whom it will deliver its wheat. For example, three days ago, Russia signed an agreement with Iran to deliver 5 million tons of wheat to it. We are on a real blackmail at the level of Russia. If you are nice to me, I will export my wheat to you. You are not nice, you will not have wheat.
You mention alternatives for Ukrainian wheat. There is the train, but if we compare with the huge ships that would leave the Black Sea, it is unthinkable as an alternative?
A wagon is 60 tons, a boat is 60,000 tons. To be clear, the equivalent of a boat is 50 trains. Don’t forget that for the train, there is a traffic jam, and we don’t have the same track width between Ukraine, Romania and Poland. So you have to tranship, empty these wagons of 60 tons each to put them back in wagons and to be able to transport them to Constanta, for example.
You say that Russian wheat production is doing very well. But for Ukraine, what about wheat production today?
Ukrainians are extremely resilient. They sowed areas of spring wheat, corn, of course, with much more constraints both in terms of seeds and in terms of fertilizer. Maize production this year is estimated to be around 23-25 million tonnes, compared to 40 million last year. So there is still a difference of about 15 million tonnes. As for wheat, last year Ukraine made about 32 million tons of wheat. This year, it’s much more complicated. It is estimated that at most it will produce 20 million tonnes of wheat. The silos will be full anyway. The problem is logistics. The silos will be full because we have not been able to export since February. So, even if we have a drop in production, we will even have a storage problem.
There are many countries that are very dependent on Russian wheat in particular. But Russia can choose to continue to deliver this wheat. Are there Western countries which, as a matter of principle, would like not to order, not to buy tons of wheat from Russia, and which perhaps could not do without it either?
In Europe, it is totally circumventable. We must not forget that France is also the leading wheat producer in Europe. Of 35 million tonnes, it exports half of it so for France there is no problem. Broadly speaking, for Europe, there is no danger.
There will of course be additional logistical costs. But there is no danger for Europe. Where it is much more worrying, it is for the Maghreb in particular that we will have to feed. Morocco is experiencing the worst drought in its history.
Michael Porterat franceinfo
It is all the same a conjunction of climatic phenomena. The rise in commodity prices was not born in February, with the war in Ukraine, it had already started two or three years ago. For two or three years, it should be known that we consume more in the world than what we produce, because of repeated climatic incidents.